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Gridiron Player Club CFB 1-5 Units (9/21/24)


CFB


6 Picks.


12:00PM: Kansas +1.5 (3 Units).


Both Kansas and WVU are off to disappointing 1-2 starts with their only wins coming against an FCS opponent. Kansas lost by 6 at Illinois 2 weeks back and followed that up with a Home loss to UNLV which is pretty inexcusable. UNLV is a much better team than people realize but that shouldn't happen. WVU lost a close one to PITT last week and got boat raced by Penn State week 1. Kansas's offensive struggles are a bit puzzling with Jalon Daniels at QB. When healthy the last couple years he's been one of the best QB's in College Football. Playing against a subpar WVU defense is the perfect spot for him to get going. QBs have had success running against the Mountaineers defense and Daniels excels in that regard. The Jayhawks defense has played well and that's what we believe is the difference here. They allowed 23 points to both Illinois and Kansas on 271 and 267 yards. The Kansas offense also turned in over 4 times against Illinois and twice to UNLV. Despite an offense doing them absolutely no favors they still turned in strong performances. Just need the Jayhawks offense to turn in a decent performance today.


3:30PM: Michigan +4.5 (2 Units).


Michigan's defense has held up fine, but their offense has been a complete and utter mess. Senior QB Davis Warren has thrown just 2 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. However, he's been moved to the bench and in comes Alex Orji. At 6'3 and 235 it's a drastic switch in playstyle and a needed one. Warren couldn't run at all, and this Michigan team lost too much talent to drop back and pass. Orji's legs will help open up the offense and at the very least help keep the Michigan offense on the field and allow them to play complimentary football. USC hasn't fielded a legitimate defense in 15 years, especially on the road. HC Lincoln Riley has never had a good defense either, dating back to his Oklahoma days. USC ranked 124th in points allowed per game on the road last year and 122nd the year before that. This is their first true road game of the year. They played LSU at a neutral site in Las Vegas week 1. This will also be USC QB's first ever true collegiate road start, and The Big House is a tough spot for it.


3:30PM: Utah +1 (3 Units) w/ Rising. 2 Units if Rising inactive., UTAH/OK ST Under 54 (2 Units).


Cam Rising is expected to play but even if he doesn't, we like the Utes. Just wait for the official word, if he is out that line will move our way a bit. Take it for 2 Units if he's ruled out. Lock that Under in though. Rising has an injury to his throwing hand which may limit him some but he's a willing runner and we fully expect the Utes to pound the rock. Oklahoma State ranked 98th vs FBS opponents allowing 170.4 rushing yards per game last season and picked up right where they left off, allowing 174 per game this year. They really struggled against Arkansas and their mobile QB. Rising isn't as great an athlete but he's a strong runner. The Utes are averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game and that's been their calling card for years, with or without a running QB.


Oklahoma State's offense has scored plenty of points, but they haven't been able to run the ball at all. Stud RB Ollie Gordon has 62 carries for just 216 yards (3.5 YPC) this season. That's despite playing South Dakota State, Arkansas, and Tulsa. Overall they're 109th in rushing yards per game. The Utes have finished 21st or better in rushing yards allowed per game against FBS opponents in each of the last 9 seasons. Half of them being inside the top 10, including a 4th placed finish last season. This is the best defense Oklahoma State is going to face all year and if this is the game they figure out how to run the football again then we'll be damned but it’s unlikely. Their QB Alan Bowman is coming off his best showing but he's not some elite QB. He plays well within Gundy’s system, but he doesn't possess elite arm strength or accuracy.


It will be very tough to beat and score points on this Utah defense without a ground game. It'll also be tough to stay on the field. The Cowboys like to go fast and up-tempo, but the Utes are one of the slowest paced teams in the Country. Look for the Utes to suck the life out of this game and dominate time of possession.


7:00PM EST: South Florida +17 (3 Units). HC Alex Golesh took over a 1-11 South Florida team and went 7-6 in his first year. They look even better in year 2 with this Bulls offense humming on the ground courtesy of dual threat QB Byrum Brown. Most figured Brown would enter the transfer portal, but he was always committed to returning. Speaks to the job Alex Golesh has done and the belief in this program. They have a pair of blowout wins and a 16-42 loss in Alabama. That was a 13-14 game entering the 4th quarter before Alabama blew it open. USF was playing for the win and turned it over on downs twice after falling behind 16-28 late in the 4th quarter. They ran for over 200 yards on a good tide defense.


Their defense isn't stellar, but they have 8 takeaways through 3 games, including 3 against Alabama. They also held Alabama in check for the large majority of that game and that was on the road. They'll have some extra juice today against an in-state rival that happens to be the team to beat in Florida. There's a buzz around this USF program and the fans will show out for this rivalry game. They went 4-2 last year with one of the losses coming against Alabama 3-17. They'll show up to play today and Brown's athleticism will give any front 7 fits.


7:30PM EST: Oklahoma +7 (2 Units).


Strength on Strength clash between Tennessee's offense and Oklahoma's defense. Tennessee Freshman QB Nico Aiamaleava has cruised in very limited action and has yet to face any real adversity. He's going to learn it's not so easy at some point and this is a great spot for it. The Sooners open up SEC play at Home and from a coaching standpoint Brett Venables defense can go toe to toe with Heupel's offense. The Tennessee defense was surprisingly good last season but they returned just 3 starters and it's never been their strength. Oklahoma's offense has had consistency issues under Venables but is still plenty capable of scoring points, scoring 34 last week and 51 week 1. Tennessee just laying a few too many points for an offense that's been significantly less potent outside Neyland Stadium.

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