CFB
3 Picks
7:30PM: Stanford +10 (3 Units).
Stanford's complete program rebuild began last year when they hired HC Troy Taylor from Sacramento State. He accumulated a 30-8 record in 3 seasons at Sacramento State and went 12-0 in his final regular season there. It was a trial by fire for this Stanford roster last year, but he's started to make his mark. He's an offensive guy and has a dual threat playmaking QB and one of the best Wide Receivers in the Country. Their issues stem up front but this Syracuse front 7 isn't great.
Syracuse went through a complete overhaul on the defensive line and the early results haven't been good. Ohio ran for 255 yards on 39 carries (6.5 YPC) against them in Week 1. In week 2 Georgia Tech ran for 112 yards on 24 carries (4.7 YPC), but they were airing it out. Despite 39 Tech pass attempts, Cuse didn't record a single sack. Overall, the Orange defense surrendered 436 total yards to Ohio and 378 to Georgia Tech. Both games were played at Syracuse. Like Stanford they're going through a rebuild but it's year 1 for them under HC Fran Brown. They were bad on defense last year and that has yet to change. Brown will inevitably make his mark on this Orange defense, but those changes don't happen overnight. Ohio's offensive line isn't built to compete with Power 4 programs, but they were able to with a dual threat QB. Stanford's Ashton Daniels is a better athlete, better passer, and has better weapons to throw the ball to. The Cardinals should be able to maintain some drives tonight.
Defensively Stanford was one of the worst in football last year, but they've improved. They gave up a bunch of yardages through the Air to TCU, but they hunkered down in the Red Zone. They lost that game 34-27 but numbers lie. 3 of those 34 points came off a Stanford interception that set them up in FG territory. 7 more of those came on a short field at the end of the game when Stanford turned it over on downs at their own 20. Their defense played well enough to win the game. Where they've really excelled is against the run. They held a very athletic TCU squad to 97 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.9 YPC) and then held Cal Poly to 25 yards rushing on 20 carries. Kyle McCord and the Orange passing attack is all the rave but they're 79th in rushing yards per game right now and have just 1 rushing touchdown this season. Syracuse shouldn't have much of an issue moving the ball between the 20's. The throwing windows just get much tighter down in the Red Zone and the most efficient red zone teams do it running the football. Stanford will need to force the Orange to settle for field goals as they did against TCU.
7:30PM EST: ILL/NEB Under 42.5 (4 Units).
Illinois had a down year defensively in 2023 and losing 4 DB's to the NFL draft the 2 previous seasons will do that. HC Bret Bielema took over in 2021 and took an Illinois defense that ranked 98th in points allowed per game vs FBS opponents and had them finished 25th in his first year. In 2022 they ranked 2nd, then last year 84th. They lost a couple corners to injury last year, but it was a rebuild on that side of the ball. When not if he turns it around and through 3 games, they've looked the part. They've allowed 26 points through 3 games and held Kansas to 17. Jalon Daniel's went 18 for 32 for 141 yards and threw 3 picks.
Nebraska's found some offensive success with True Freshman QB Dylan Raiola, but he hasn't been asked to do too much. They've played 1 Power 4 team, and it was Colorado, who are going to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12. Nebraska won 28-10 as Raiola threw for 185 yards. Nebraska wants to run the football and will run the football but we like Illinois’s defense when they try to throw. Illinois led the nation in interceptions per game 2 years ago at 1.8 and they're right back at the top with 6 through 3 games this year. Bielema's defense will be playing chess while the freshman QB’s playing checkers. That's the matchup to watch in this game.
Nebraska's defense was elite last year and is elite again this year. They ranked 11th in points allowed per game against FBS opponents last year and have allowed just 20 combined points through 3 games this year. HC Matt Rhule is a College Football program builder and Nebraska brought back 7 defensive starters from last year. Illinois's offense ranks 98th in rushing yards per game and Nebraska's defense is first allowing just 36. This is also Illinois's first road game of the season and it'll be a packed house on Friday Night to open conference play. Hard to see Illinois having much success at all offensively.
10:00PM EST: San Jose State +13 (2 Units).
San Jose State brought in longtime Navy HC Ken Niumatalolo to run things this season and no they aren't running the triple option. The biggest move is the retention of defensive coordinator Derrick Odum. This is his 8th year as the San Jose State DC and his overall defense has ranked inside the 25 on multiple occasions. They haven't been truly tested just yet, but they've dominated teams good defense dominate, allowing under 200 total yards per game this season. Washington State's a bump in competition but the Cougars lost a lot of talent from last year, mainly QB Cameron Ward. They got a solid dual threat replacement who's sure to make some plays today but he's reckless with the ball. He's a first-year starter that's thrown interceptions in back-to-back games and was fortunate not to cough it up once or twice against Washington.
Offensively the Spartans have gone full Air Raid which is ideal tonight. Washington state ranks 127th in passing yards allowed through 3 games and were 85th a season ago. They had just 3 starters return on the defensive side of the ball. Washington threw for 346 on them last week and Texas Tech 349 the week before. San Jose State has the makeup to move the ball offensively.
This is also a huge let down spot for Washington State. They just went into Washington and beat their in-state rivals 24-19. That was the last remaining Power 5 team on the schedule before they face Oregon State in 2 Months, the only other Pac-12 team. That Washington team they just barely beat isn’t exactly great either. They lost their coaches and brough back just 2 starters from last year. They’ve got a long way to go program wise. San Jose State is a well-coached team that will come ready to play.
