Gridiron Player Club CFB 1-5 Units (9/14/24)

CFB

7 Picks.

12:00PM EST: Oklahoma State -17 (2 Units).

The Cowboys won a game against Arkansas last week that they really shouldn't have. The Razorbacks ran all over them and their dual threat QB was a big reason why. The SEC talent and athleticism was on full display against a very good Big 12 team. Tulsa isn't going to out athlete OKST and their QB isn't a runner. Oklahoma State returned 10 starters on both sides of the ball from last year. Their defense allowed just 10 second half points and blanked Arkansas in 2 overtimes last week. This will be Tulsa QB Kirk Francis's first start against a Power 5 program. Without a running threat at QB, we expect a much stronger performance from the Cowboys defense.

Ollie Gordon and the Oklahoma State offense hasn't had a big day yet. Their OL is the most experienced in College Football and paved the way for Gordon's 1,732 rushing yards last season. Gordon rushed for just 49 yards on 17 carries against Arkansas last week and 126 on 28 carries against South Dakota State in week 1. Not great numbers. Tulsa ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed per game vs FBS opponents last year. They gave up 150 yards rushing to Arkansas State last week, their only FBS opponent. It's a matter of when, not if this Oklahoma State rushing attack gets rolling and this is a good spot for it. When that gets rolling so will the rest of this offense. Regardless they've scored 44 and 39 points in their first 2 games. 3:30PM EST: Florida +3.5 (2 Units).

Florida got rolled by a very good Miami team at Home in Week 1 but that helped lead to the DJ Lagway discovery. The true freshman QB came in at the end of the Miami game and then started the following week, lighting it up against Samford. He and Mertz are both projected to play but it will be a hot hand scenario. Major bump in competition facing A&M but it's Lagway's legs that are most valuable. Mertz is a true pocket passer that provides next to no running threat. Florida's offensive line struggled against Miami and has for years now. A&M's highly touted DL has just 1 sack on the season despite facing a Notre Dame OL with 5 new starters and inferior FCS opponent McNeese. A&M gave up 198 yards rushing to Notre Dame and and then 180 yards to McNeese. With Florida HC Billy Napier coaching for his job, fully expect Lagway to play the majority of this game. They're going to need his legs on the ground, and they had a decent day running the football against Miami despite Mertz starting.

Florida isn't a strong defensive program but that A&M offense has been equally as bad the past few years. It's A&M's first road game and the swamp is one of the toughest places to visit. Florida did hold FBS opponents to 20PPG at Home a season ago. Florida's defense should be able to do enough with the crowd behind them as they open SEC play.

3:30PM EST: Washington State +6.5 (3 Units).

This is technically a road game, but they'll be plenty of Cougar fans in the stands for this in state rivalry game. WSU beat up on Texas Tech 37-16 last week and blew out Portland state 70-30 Week 1. The Cougars had their work cut out for them replacing QB Cameron Ward, but they did so in house with John Mateer. This is his 3rd year with the program and as such is comfortable with this offense. The 1 thing he brings that Ward didn't is his ability to run the Football. He had 21 carries for 197 yards last week. WSU HC Jake Dickert is in his 3rd year at the Helm and has an experienced group of guys. It's their first road game and Washington's a tough place to visit but being in State will lighten the load. Washington's returned just 2 starters from last year's National championship team. They have an entirely new coaching staff, players, and have yet to play a real opponent. They beat Weber State 35-3 in Week 1 and Eastern Michigan 30-9 in week 2. We like their HC hire in Jedd Fisch but it's too early with a ton of roster overhaul. They're far from playing their best football right now.

3:30PM EST: Oregon -17 (3 Units).

Oregon's been slow out of the gate, but this is one of the most talented rosters in College Football. They have the same OC that led the 4th ranked scoring offense and the same defensive mastermind in HC Dan Lanning that led the 10th ranked scoring defense a season ago. They beat Boise State 37-34 last week despite shooting themselves in the foot quite a bit. They had 2 costly turnovers that led to 14 Boise points and had 9 penalties for 74 yards. Transfer portal era type of problems early in the season. They're going to improve on a week-to-week basis. The Beavers have been decimated by roster turnover. They have just 3 starters returning from last year’s 8-5 team. They also have a new head coach, promoting DC Trent Bray. He had to go outside the program and bring in a new OC Brian Lindgren. The public is betting on Oregon State here and overreacting to last week’s game. Boise State is a quality football team that brought back a ton of talent from last year. Oregon's going to throttle someone sooner rather than later and remind everyone why their national championship contenders.

3:30PM EST: Tulane Team Total Under 16.5 (2 Units).

Oklahoma's offense is a big question mark, but this Brent Venables defense is not. He's in his 3rd year now and has his guys with a sprinkle of transfer portal talent. He led the elite Clemson defense for years before arriving in Oklahoma in 2022. They allowed 3 points to Temple in week 1 and 12 points to Houston last week. Tulane played well against Kansas State at Home last week but after a hot start, they scored just 7 points in the 2nd half, squandering a 10-point lead. They start Redshirt Freshman Darian Mensah at QB. He didn't play at all last year and each of his first 2 starts this year came at Home. Going on the road to face a big-time program is tough on any offense and QB, let alone a redshirt freshman. 6:00PM EST: Virginia Tech -16.5 (2 Units).

The Hokies returned all 11 starters on offense and 8 on defense from last season. The defense has performed fine but it's the offense that's disappointed thus far. They scored 28 or more in 6 of their last 7 games last year. They scored 48, 55, and 41 in their last 3 games away from Home. They coasted to a 31-14 win over Marshall last week. Old Dominion's one of the better defensive programs as far as bottom half FBS programs go but the Hokies are much more athletic. Tech ranked 20th vs FBS programs rushing for 190 YPG last season and averaged 164 through 2 games this year. Old Dominion ranked 48th allowing 143.4 rushing YPG last season and that's with most games coming against a weaker Sun Belt Conference and have allowed 199 rushing YPG through 2 games this year.

Old Dominions lack of offense is why we like the Hokies to cover the spread. Through 2 games against East and South Carolina they have just 203 yards rushing on 75 carries (2.7 YPC). Starting QB Grant Wilson has thrown for 389 yards on 42/72 (58.3%) passing. They've scored on a couple big plays but have failed to do much else this year. Old Dominion ranked dead last in Time of Possession last year at 24:48 and are 112th this year at 25:43. Tech's ground game will only get stronger as this game moves along. Strong winds expected throughout this game which will only make it tougher to throw for both teams.

7:30PM EST: Kentucky +22.5 (3 Units).

Georgia's the team to beat in the SEC but Mark Stoops has quietly built Kentucky into one of the SEC's most consistent programs, leading them to 8 straight Bowl Games. They brough back 9 defensive and 6 offensive starters. 4 of the 5 offensive starters are along the OL and they've done a good job run blocking through 2 games. They brought in transfer QB Brock Vandagriff from Georgia, who spent 3 years there, so he's familiar with their defense. Georgia's defense has embarrassed each of their first 2 opponents, but this will be their first game on the road. Georgia's defense allowed at least 20 points in 4 of their 5 road games during the regular season last year. They allowed 27 at a neutral site to Alabama in the SEC championship game as well. Just a lot of points to be laying in your first road game and conference play opener. Kentucky was on a 5-0 ATS run vs Georgia before that ended in Georgia last year. We like the Wildcats to hang around and compete here.