Gridiron Player Club CFB 1-5 Units (9/13/24)

CFB

2 Picks.

8:15PM EST: Kansas State -7 (4 Units).

This is Arizona's first road game of the season under new HC Brent Brennan, and it will be a packed house on Friday Night. KSU HC Chris Klieman has built up one of the Big 12's best programs since taking over in 2019, going 9-4 last year and 10-4 the year before that. Neither team played too great a week ago, with Arizona beating a bad FCS opponent 22-10 and KSU needing a come from behind win over Tulane. Arizona's is much more concerning of the 2. Scoring just 22 points at Home against a team that ranked 84th in total defense in the FCS a season ago is just inexcusable. They did drop 61 on New Mexico in their first game of the season it hasn't been all bad. KSU on the other hand was on the road and it was Sophomore QB Avery Johnson's first true road start. Sure enough they settled in for the 2nd half.

We expect Arizona's offensive issues to carry over a bit. Being it's their first road game with a new offensive system and a plethora of new players. Kansas State also had the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the Big 12 a season ago. They've returned 7 starters, and their DC Joe Klanderman has been with the program since 2020. They've allowed less than 22PPG in each of their last 3 seasons. They've held FBS opponents below 20 PPG at Home in each of their last 2 seasons as well.

Arizona's defense had their way against the inferior Northern Arizona, but they allowed 39 points in their win over New Mexico at Home in Week 1. New Mexico ran for 210 yards on 38 carries (5.5 YPC). New Mexico's QB ran for 130 of the 210 yards and KSU has a great dual threat QB as well. KSU also brought back their leading rusher from last year, DJ Giddens. KSU's averaged more than 200 yards rushing per game in each of the last 2 seasons and they've run for just shy of 500 in 2 games this year. Their rushing success is directly correlated with ranking 22nd in time of possession last season and 27th the season before that.

We expect TOP to be a difference maker tonight. Arizona likes to throw the ball early and often and that can result in quick empty possessions. They went 0-10 on 3rd downs against Northern Arizona last week and that was at Home. It can also lead to quick scoring drives, evident in their 61-39 win over New Mexico. They had to ball for just under 25 minutes in that game. Either way KSU will get a chance to grind down this Arizona run defense. Those rushing lanes will only get bigger as the game goes on.

8:15PM EST: AZ/KSU First Half Under 30.5 (2 Units).

We expect this game to be lower scoring out of the gate. This is Arizona's first road game under new HC Brent Brennan. He's brought in a brand-new scheme and a plethora of players. Natural growing pains on the road, especially in a packed house on Friday Night. KSU has held FBS opponents below 20 PPG at Home in each of their last 2 seasons. Arizona's rush defense was decent in 2023, but they allowed 211 yards rushing against New Mexico at Home in their only game against an FBS opponent this season. KSU has averaged more than 200 rushing YPG in each of the last 2 seasons, have a better rushing QB this year, and return RB DJ Giddens who led the team with 1,226 rushing yards last season. KSU will make it a point early to establish the ground game which should help bleed out this first half clock. This game could bust open in the 2nd half when those rushing lanes bust open. The Arizona offense likely settles in at some point and they've got a potent passing attack with an experienced QB. First Half only.