CFB
5 Picks.
12:00PM EST: Clemson + 12.5 (3 Units).
The Tigers Defense was ranked 8th in the country in yards allowed per game and have 6 starters returning. A couple of their biggest contributors in 2023 were freshman defensive lineman who weren't listed as starters. Clemson's defense is an elite group with a stacked front 7. Georgia returns a lot of their offensive production but they're ushering in a new Center and Right Tackle, 2 premier OL spots. The Bulldogs are likely without star RB Trevor Ettiene as well as he deals with legal troubles. Georgia QB Carson Beck just lost his two favorite targets to the NFL in TE Brock Powers and WR Ladd McConkey. Plenty of new important pieces to work in.
Clemson replaces their lost talent from within. Dabo Swinney is keeping it old school, developing the kids he recruited. The Media's knocked Clemson for their lack of action in the transfer portal but that's something coaches admire. That familiarity and experience within their system will certainly provide an edge for Clemson early in the season. This is also a neutral site game at Mercedez Benz Stadium. Yes, it's in Georgia but Clemson University is just an extra 10-minute drive to the stadium compared to Georgia University. The Georgia offense will have to deal with a crowd, same as Clemson.
The Clemson offense is poised for a stronger year with QB Cade Klubnik in his Junior season. The Tigers offense struggled much of 2023 with Klubnik entering his first full season as a starter. It was also offensive coordinator Garret Riley's first season at Clemson too. He came over after leading that prolific TCU offense that averaged 39.8 points per game. Unlike Georgia's QB, Klubnik gets his top WR, TE, and RB back for 2024. Hard-Pressed to find a more talented College Football offense poised for a bigger breakout. OC Riley has had success everywhere he's gone. If they do make that leap, Clemson becomes a National Championship contender.
12:00PM EST: West Virginia + 7.5 (2 Units).
West Virginia made a big leap under Neal Brown in 2023, finishing the season with a 9-4 overall record and 6-3 conference record. They were 5-1 at Home with their only loss coming against the Big 12 runner up Oklahoma State. As talented as Penn State is, they lost 8 players to the NFL draft, including 3 offensive lineman, 2 defensive lineman, and both starting cornerbacks. A lot of premier positions to replace. The offensive line is the biggest hit for Penn State today. West Virginia is a mad house and it's a program with high expectations this season. It's opening week hosting the 8th ranked team in the country. That stadium will be rocking all day long. WVU also loaded up on defensive line depth in the portal and their DL coach Andrew Jackson worked wonders with a patchwork front 7 last season.
Offensively WVU returns 89% of its offensive production. They ranked 31st in yards per game, 5th in rushing YPG, and averaged 258.8 rushing yards per game at Home last season. Dual Threat QB Garrett Greene is a Senior entering year 2 as a full-time starter. He threw just 4 interceptions last season and his ability to take care of the football is paramount against a quality defense. HC Neal Brown took back offensive play-calling duties last season. Nowhere to go but up for this offense.
3:30PM EST: Florida +2.5. (2 Units).
Miami brought in a lot of talent, but the Swamp is a different beast. Hosting in state rivals this place will be rocking. Arguably the toughest stadium to go in and visit in the entire nation. As bad as Florida's defense was last year (85th in Points Allowed Per Game), they allowed just 20 PPG at home. Their defensive coordinator enters the all-important year 2. They return all their important defensive contributors from 2023. They also get EDGE Justus Boone back. He was set to start in 2023 after playing in 13 games as a freshman in 2022 but was lost for the season. This won't be a top CFB defense, but it will be improved. Brand new QB at Miami and it takes some time to put it all together.
Offensively we're bullish on Florida and what Billy Napier is building. He has a very strong history of developing Offensive Lineman and he's had the opportunity to do that now. He's entering year 3 and in a make or break year. 3 of their 5 starting OL have been with Napier the last 3 years and another for 2. They've brought in some high-profile transfers including former Alabama offensive tackle Damieon George. This should be an improved Unit and it's the one thing that's held the Gators back for years. They've never lacked talent at the skill position and likely never will. They also get back starting QB Graham Mertz who enjoyed a breakout season for the Gators. He's a pocket passer so keeping him upright is a must. He threw 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions last season. He has 1,131 career pass attempts and 8,308 passing yards in his College Career. 7:00PM EST: WKY/ALA Under 60.5 (2 Units). New coach for Bama but still one of the most talented rosters in College Football. Fully expect Alabama to throttle Western Kentucky and then pull off the gas. ALA starting QB Jalen Milroe can throw but he's at his best when a dual threat. There's no need to open him up to extra hits today. Alabama plays South Florida at Home next week so there's no rush mad dash to get this team to mid-season form. They also play Wisconsin the week after that, so they have truly have the luxury of ramping guys up slowly. Expect a very vanilla Alabama offense. Whatever wrinkles new HC Kalen DeBoer's bringing to Alabama will stay secret. Likely won't see it them until they play Georgia in week 4. Western Kentucky just lost their big, strong-armed QB and star WR Malachi Corley. Alabama's 2nd and 3rd string defense is more talented than Western Kentucky's starters.
7:30PM: Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Under 47.5 (5 Units).
These two ranked 7th and 19th in yards allowed per game last season. Defensive HC Marcus Freeman is leading the charge for Notre Dame with NFL talent all over the field. TX A&M had an up and down season in 2023, but they've fired Jimbo Fisher and replaced him with defensive mastermind Mike Elko. Elko was the A&M DC from 2018-2021. He Left A&M for the Duke HC Job after leading the 4th best scoring defense in CFB. Then he went to Duke for 2 years had them ranked 25th and 18th scoring defense. Both teams have new Quarterbacks for 2024, and Notre Dame has a brand-new offensive line. They have just 6 career starts among their starting 5. Having to play their first game at Texas A&M is a rough spot. Notre Dame's defense will travel just fine, but their offense is in for a rough night.
