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Green Bay Packers vs Las Vegas Raiders NFL Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction (10/9/23)

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NFL

(10/9/23) 8:15PM Eastern.

Spread: Packers +2 / Raiders -2

ML: Packers +110 / Raiders -130

Over/Under 45.5.

Free Pick: Josh Jacobs Under 74.5 Rushing Yards.


For starters, Josh Jacobs hasn't rushed for more than 62 yards in a game this season. He has just 166 rushing yards total and is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. This Packers defense has let up quite a bit of rushing yards through 4 games this season but stats don't tell the full story. Outside of New Orleans they've faced 3 very good rushing teams.


They played the Bears in week 1, QB Justin Fields had 59 of the Bears 122 rushing yards. Starting RB Khalil Hebert ran 9 times for just 27 yards (3 YPC). The following week they played Atlanta, Bijan had a good day running for 124 yards on 19 carries. Fellow RB Tyler Allgeier only ran for 48 yards on 16 carries and the Packers defense was on the field for 36 minutes that game. They held the Saints to just 77 rushing yards on 3.5 YPC 2 weeks ago. Then last week David Montomgery ran for 121 yards but he ran the ball 32 times. That's only 3.8 YPC.


Outside of Bijan who's tearing up the entire league at the moment, they've done a decent job against starting running backs. The Raiders also rank 30th in the NFL in points per game and 23rd in points allowed. The Raiders offense has played just 5 drives with a lead this entire season. The immense volume Montgomery saw last week shouldn't be there for Jacobs. Josh only went over this yardage total in 9 of his 17 games last year and that was in the midst of a career year that saw him rush for 1,653 yards. This start has easily been the worst of his career.


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