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Georgia vs Oregon, 9/3/22 NCAAF Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction.



NCAAF

(9/3/22) 3:30 PM Eastern.

Spread: Georgia -17 / Oregon +17.5

Moneyline: Georgia -800 / Oregon +500

Total: Over / Under 53.5


The reigning National Champs face off against the Oregon Ducks in a “neutral” site game. It’s really not all that neutral as they square off in the home of the Atlanta Falcons Mercedes Benz Stadium. A 90-minute drive from Athens but a 100-hour road trip from Oregon. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30p.m. eastern time.


Georgia


Kirby Smart has his work cut out for him after losing 15 players to the NFL draft. He also lost defensive coordinator Dan Lenning to these Oregon Ducks, the man in charge of that historic Georgia defense from last season. Despite all that Georgia is still picked as a national contender and in large part due to Smart’s recruiting. He’s had a top 4 class in each of his last 5 years at Georgia. The most recent 2022 class ranked 3rd nationally and projects to see some true freshmen take the field.


For the first time in the Kirby Smart era, his offense may be better than his defense. Todd Monken heads into his 3rd year at offensive coordinator and starting QB Stenson Bennett returns for his 6th collegiate season. In total, Georgia returns 8 starters from it’s National Championship team including 3 offensive linemen. Both of their starting tackles and starting center return. They have game breaking speed at every skill position and are deepest at tight end. The TE group’s headlined by Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert but they have 4 or 5 different tight ends likely to see the field every Saturday. Outside you can expect plenty of action from the X WR Adonai Mitchell, he filled in for the injured George Pickens last season. Kenny McIntosh takes over at RB for the bulldogs, a versatile do-it-all gadget like James Cook last year. This is as deep and explosive a group that Smart’s ever had at Georgia and the first time Monken gets a returning starter at QB with no competition through Spring.


Defensively Georgia lost 8 of it’s 11 starters from what some claim to be the greatest College Football defense of all time. They also lost their Defensive Coordinator, who left to be the HC of Oregon. Yet this defense will be one of the better defenses in College Football. Nobody has had better defensive recruiting success than Kirby Smart since he arrived in Athens. He’s got a pool of thoroughbreds to choose from and always find the right guys. He does get Safety Chris Smith, CB Kalee Ringo, and OLB Nolan Smith back. DT Jalen Carter didn’t get any starts last year sitting behind Jordan Davis and DeVonte Wyatt but he’s a game wrecker. They’ll need a big season out of him to sure up an inexperienced front 7.


Oregon


The Ducks offense should once again feature an explosive group. Troy Franklin projects to be the team’s number 1 WR, but Seven Mcgee, the RB turned WR will be all used all over the field. Bo Nix is likely to be the QB throwing them the ball, a transfer from Auburn, but Ty Thompson may work in too. The RB room will be led by Byron Cardwell, a sophomore that averaged 6.8 yards per carry on 61 touches in 2021. The Ducks offensive line returns a combined 82 starts, a major strength for the Oregon offense.


Ex Georgia Defensive Coordinator Dan Lenning is now leading the Oregon defense. Oregon retains a few strong pieces from a good Duck defense from a season ago. Defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus and Popo Aumavae, who, according to PFF earned the top 2 grades of all defensive lineman in the PAC-12. Most notable LB Noah Sewell, the leader of this Ducks team and projected top pick in the 2023 draft, and LB Justin Flowe who hasn’t played much due to injury but brings athleticism and pop to the interior of that defense. Their front 7 is going to have to play well if they want a chance to beat Georgia.


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The Pick


Take the Over 53.5 in this game. Georgia’s offense just has too much firepower for Oregon to stop. Monken in his 3rd year as OC and Bennett getting all the first team reps over the off-season with 7 of the 10 starters from last year spells trouble for all their opponents. This Oregon defense also really struggled against multiple tight end looks last season and they’re up against the best TE room in the country in this one. Georgia’s veteran offensive line can handle any PAC-12 front 7 that they see and their playmakers on the outside are just better than Oregon’s secondary. On the flip side I also see Oregon being able to score some points against an inexperienced Georgia defense. They may reload just fine but it's going to take some time to gel. Oregon brings back experience all across it’s offensive line and will have the advantage against Georgia’s front 7. Oregon HC Dan Lenning also knows the ins and outs of this Georgia defense better than anyone and he’s had an entire off-season to draw up some plays to help his offense. Oregon is loaded with playmakers of their own and will take advantage of Georgia’s youthful mistakes.


Bonnetti’s Pick: OVER 53.5.

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