Free Pick: New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Saturday, August 1, 2026

7:15 PM ET

Spread: NYY -1.5 (+175) / CHC +1.5 (-210)

ML: NYY -110 / CHC -110

Over/Under: 6.5

Free Pick: Cubs ML -110

New York is walking into Wrigley without three of its best hitters. Aaron Judge has been out for months with a stress-fractured rib and isn't expected back until September. Cody Bellinger just went down with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, out 4-6 weeks. Giancarlo Stanton is also sidelined with a calf strain. That's three middle-of-the-order bats gone from a Yankees offense now leaning on a thinner lineup on the road, and Vegas has the Cubs favored tonight because of it.

Chicago has the better record (57-44 to New York's 56-44), is playing at home, and has been finding ways to win. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the engine of this club — 24 homers, 63 RBI, 26 steals — and the Cubs have won six straight games immediately after a loss this season, a sign of a team that doesn't stay down.

Weather tilts things further Chicago's way: rain and wind are forecast to blow into Wrigley, the kind of conditions that level the field and reward the scrappier, more situational team over raw talent. New York does send out Max Fried (3.23 ERA) against Chicago's David Peterson (5.80 ERA), a real edge on paper — but this game is being decided more by who's standing in the batter's box than who's on the mound, and that favors the healthier lineup.

Bottom Line: A shorthanded Yankees lineup, a Cubs team playing with real form, home-field edge, and the weather all pointing the same direction. Lean Cubs ML.

Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.