NCAAF
(10/28/22) 8:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: East Carolina +3 / BYU -3
Moneyline: ECU +130 /
Total: Over / Under 63.5
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Friday night football kicks off on ESPN2 with the East Carolina Pirates taking on the BYU Cougars. BYU hosts, kickoff is scheduled for 8:00p.m. eastern time at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
ECU (5-3)
The Pirates are coming off a pair of strong wins over Memphis and UCF. 5th year QB Holton Ahlers and the ECU offense has been lighting up the scoreboard. In the last 2 weeks Ahlers has completed 56 of his 70 pass attempts for 615 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns to go along with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Starting RB Keaton Mitchell has 254 rushing yards and a whopping 5 rushing touchdowns during that span as well.
That’s been the theme for the ECU offense all year, they average 472.6 yards per game, averaging 33 points per game. They’re well balanced, averaging 309.3 through the air and 163.4 on the ground.
The Pirates defense hasn’t been nearly as successful, as they let up an average of 392.9 yards per game and rank 95th allowing 23.1 points per game. It’s been their pass defense that’s the issue, they surrender 280.5 passing yards per game (2nd worst in the AAC) but allow 112.4 rushing YPG (2nd best in the AAC). Their rush defense hasn’t necessarily been good, it’s in part due to game script when their offense jumps ahead.
BYU (4-4)
BYU looks for a much needed win after losing 3 straight games. Both the offense and defense struggled against Liberty last week but this Cougars offense has rolled when playing at home. They’ve scored 26, 38, 38, and 35 in 4 home games. An average of 34.25 points per game, 4 points higher than their season average of 30.1. Like ECU they do it both through the air and on the ground, averaging 404.5 yards per game, 266.1 passing and 138.4 rushing yards per game.
The defense has been flat out embarrassed the last 2 weeks, Arkansas hung up 52 on them and then Liberty scored 41. They’ve let up a combined 1,191 total yards in those 2 games, 614 passing and 577 yards rushing. The defense has been a weak point all year but it’s only gotten worse, on the year they let up an average of 31.6 points per game and 420.5 yards per game.
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The Pick
ECU/BYU Over 63.5. Two prolific offense’s going up against bad/terrible defense. East Carolina’s offense is steamrolling teams, averaging 472.6 yards per game and 33 points per game. They’ve combined for 81 points in their last 2 games and now face a BYU defense that can’t stop anybody. BYU’s defense has been bad, allowing 31.6 points per game and 420.5 yards per game but it’s been much worse than that in their last two. They let up a combined 1,191 total yards and 93 points their last 2 games. Picked apart through the air for 614 yards and gashed on the ground for 577. ECU’s prolific offense will have a field day. On the other side BYU’s offense can score just as much and ECU’s defense hasn’t stopped anyone either. BYU averages 34.25 points per game at home and averages 404.5 yards per game on the year. ECU’s defense lets up an average of 392.9 YPG and 280.5 of that comes through the air. Which plays into the strength of BYU’s Offense, QB Jaren Hall averages 262.6 passing YPG and already has 19 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. The Over is 5-1 in ECU’s L6 games vs Independents and 10-2 their L12 Friday games. The Over’s also 6-1 BYU’s L7 home games, 5-1 L6 games vs the AAC, 9-1 their L11 after losing by 20 or more, and 7-3 L10 overall. Expect some fireworks tonight.
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