Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFL Free Picks, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 1/8/23

NFL

(1/8/23) 8:20 PM Eastern.

Spread: Lions +4.5 / Packers -4.5

Moneyline: Lions +180 / Packers -225

Total: Over / Under 49

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No need to overthink this, it’s Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay in a Win and in scenario. Nobody expected them to get here but 4 straight wins after falling to 4-8 and here we are. The explosion of rookie WR Christian Watson has helped but their pass defense is much improved. They held two of the NFL’s best passing offenses (MIA and MIN) to just 20 and 17 points the last two weeks. There’s also the revenge factor, Green Bay lost to the Lions earlier this season by a score of 9-15. One of Aaron Rodgers worst performances in his career, throwing 3 redzone interceptions. This is a much different Packers team now, and you best believe Rodgers is carrying a chip on his shoulder coming into this one looking to redeem himself.

There’s also the likely scenario that the Lions are outright eliminated from the playoffs before this game even starts. IF SEA beats the Rams (they’re 6 point favorites to do so), the Lions are out of the playoffs. Now this Lions team is going to show up and play regardless but the injury report is key. Detroit’s below average defense has multiple defenders questionable and dealing with injuries coming into this game, getting knocked out of the playoffs will knock those players out of this game. Aaron Rodgers threw for over 300 yards in their first meeting and that was a healthy Lions defense and a Packers passing attack that was a shell of what it is now. Rodgers and company are going to light up a Lions defense that ranks 29th in points allowed per game anyway, only gets uglier for Detroit if those guys don’t strap up.

Now the Lions will be able to move the football a bit. As good as the Packers defense has been, it’s been thanks to a stellar pass defense. The Packers last 3 opponents ranked 27th, 32nd, and 31st in rush attempts per game. The Lions like to run the football though, ranking 11th in both pass and rushing attempts per game. More balanced than what the GB defense has seen. The reason for the Packers pass defense being so successful is the change to 2 high looks. They’ve run Cover 2 and Cover 6 on 46% of defensive snaps the last 3 weeks. That means their safeties are outside the box and leaving the opposing offense with a numbers advantage in the run game. The Packers will have to respect a Lions passing attack averaging 263.8 (8th in the NFL) so the Lions will get those favorable run looks. They’ll score enough to help push this total Over the 49 points.