NCAAB
2 Picks (5 Units).
6:30PM: UConn/Nova Over 145 (3 Units).
Won't see us betting many overs on a pair of teams that rank 300+ in tempo but this is an exception. UConn's 2nd in offensive rating and 131st in defensive rating. Villanova's 5th in offensive rating and 180th in defensive rating. Fully trust UConn to score without issue here. They've played a tough schedule and in 9 games since that miserable Bahama's trip they're averaging 83.5 points per game. They haven't scored less than 76 points in a single one of those contests. Villanova scored 100 at Home their last time out and 79 at Creighton against a good defense a few games back. Nova's 2nd in College Basketball shooting 41.5% from 3 and that jumps to 43.4% at Home. They're also 66th in 3-PT Rate at 44.9% so it's not from a lack of volume. The Huskies do a good job running teams off the 3-PT Line but they're 334th in opponent 3-PT %. The perimeter shots they allow are very good looks and this is Nova's game. With this game being played at Villanova, one of if not the best Home Court advantages in the Big East, we trust Nova to get to their shots.
7PM: Alabama Team Total Over 82.5 (2 Units).
Alabama leads the nation averaging 91.1 points per game and they're 4th in offensive rating. They're also doing it shooting just 31.6% from deep. At some point they're going to get hot from outside and their potential is scary when they do. Regardless we like them to have their way with South Carolina's 66th ranked defense. South Carolina went on the road and surrendered 85 to a good Mississippi State offense their last time out. Would have been much higher if they didn't score just 50 points on offense. Playing at Home against a consideringly worse Alabama defense they should do enough to keep the Tide rolling. Other than that SC has played just a few decent offensive teams. At Home they allowed 80 to Clemson (40th ORtg) in regulation and 75 to Xavier (51st). In a road game against Indiana (54th) they allowed 87 points. None of those teams are on or close to the same level as Alabama offensively. Alabama's also 5th in adjusted Tempo and of the 4 previously mentioned teams Indiana's the next closest at 79th. Bama's also gone over this total in 8 of their last 10 games.
