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12:00PM EST: St. John's -18.5 (3 Units), Joel Soriano Over 8.5 Rebounds -120 (3 Units).
The Red Storm are rolling hot, winning 4 straight and each of their last 3 in blowout fashion. Most have them on the outside looking in at an NCAA Tournament Bid but that can change. KenPom ranks them 28th Nationally and they're a few baskets away from having a very different season. Their run needs to continue into conference tournament play for a chance at a Bid, but Georgetown comes first.
Georgetown's 2-17 in Big East play with its only wins coming against Depaul, the worst team in the Big East and all Power 6 programs. Georgetown lost by 13 at Home to Providence their last time out. Going back on the road they lost 47-75 at Nova, got a 1-Point win over Depaul, and lost by 22 on the road to Creighton. They're 321st in Adj D and 102nd in Adj O.
Offensive rebounding, Turnovers, and Transition baskets should lead St. John's to cover the large spread. Georgetown's 195th averaging 11.4 turnovers per game while St. John's averages 12.9 opponent turnovers per game. Transition opportunities come from loose balls or missed shots. The Red Storm ranks 38th in Adj D and Georgetown ranks 324th in FG%. Georgetown will miss shots and turn it over plenty. They’re in the bottom 5 in CBB ranking 358th in PPP defending in transition. They also allow the 34th most transition possessions. Georgetown's just 282nd in defensive rebounding % while St. John's sits 7th in offensive rebounding %.
5th year Senior Joel Soriano leads the Red Storm in rebounding and is one of the best in the Country. He's been a starter for 3 years here and is playing in his last regular season Home Game for the Red Storm. We like him to show out today and when he's at his best he dominates the glass. St. John's as a whole need’s wins and even style points right now. They should keep the throttle down for an entire 40 minutes.
12:00PM EST: Alabama Team Total Over 94.5 (3 Units).
Ton of points but a number Alabama's covered in 4 of their last 5 Home games. The lone exception came against Tennessee the last time they took the Home floor. Not surprising considering Tennessee has the 3rd ranked defense in the Country. This is a great spot for Alabama. They've lost 3 of their last 4 Games. All 3 losses to top teams in the Conference. It's Senior Night and 5 of Alabama's top 6 scorers are Seniors. Bama has the top offense in the Country and plays at the 11th fastest Tempo. Arkansas's defense ranks 142nd and they play at the 34th fastest tempo. Arkansas's also 317th in opponent Free Throw rate and their transition defense is 89th in PPP. Perfect get right spot for an Alabama team that's struggling right before Tournament play. The Alabama defense ranks 107th in Adj D but Arkansas's offense is hit or miss especially on the road. That's why we aren't laying the points with Bama or taking the game total. Alabama’s offense should show out regardless.
2:30PM EST: Creighton/Nova Under 137.5 (4 Units)
Wouldn't usually take an Under between two teams that rank 7th and 15th in 3-PT Rate but we will today because Creighton ranks 24th and Villanova 13th in Adj D. Nova ranks 17th in points allowed per game and have allowed just 62.4 PPG at Home.
Creighton does a phenomenal job running teams off the 3-PT line and forcing them into the midrange. They lead all Power 6 programs in opponent 3-PT Rate. They also force teams to take midrange shots on 25% of possessions, 3rd most. It's an area Villanova's offense struggles in, ranking 275th in PPP. Villanova's offense has struggled all year. They rank 68th in Adj O and 287th in FG%.
Villanova doesn't run teams off the 3-PT line like Creighton, but they defend it well. After a brutal start to the year defending the perimeter they're now one of the better teams. They've climbed to 45th in Open-3 Rate, 50th in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 55th in PPP defending 3's off the Dribble. They're holding teams below 33% from deep and under 32% at Home. Creighton ranks 44th in 3-PT% on the season but they've shot just 34.2% from 3 on the road.
This game will be played at a slower pace. Creighton ranks 230th and Villanova 348th in Tempo. With the Wildcats playing their final Home game we trust them to better dictate the flow of this game too. There should be plenty of long empty possessions in this game. Creighton is 256th and Villanova is 279th in offensive rebounding %. Creighton is 40th and Villanova is 30th in defensive rebounding %. They opt to get back and get set defensively. Big reason they're 329th and 250th in defensive transition frequency.
4:00PM EST: Kansas/Houston Under 137.5 (3 Units)
Houston has the #1 defense in the Country and Kansas isn't too far behind at #10. Houston's such a large favorite here because of Kansas's road struggles. The Jayhawks are just 3-6 on the road this year and their offense goes missing at times. It's the McCullar and Dickinson show for Kansas, but they struggle to find points outside those two. McCullar has been battling injuries and tweaked his knee last time out. There's talk of resting him through the Big 12 Tournament. He's questionable today but even if he does go, he won't get a full workload. Houston also ranks 4th in PPP defending the Post, an area where Dickinson does most of his work.
It's going to be an extremely hostile environment for the Kansas offense. Houston just joined the Big 12 this season and already clinched a share of the Big 12 regular season title. A win today and that Big 12 titles is theirs alone. Houston also ranks 349th in Tempo and should control the flow of this game. The Houston offense isn't exactly efficient. They're 240th in FG% and 304th in FT%. They'll struggle against an Elite Kansas defense. They make up for it by dominating the offensive glass. They're 4th in the Nation in offensive rebounding %. Kansas is 49th in defensive rebounding % and has one of the best rebounders in the Country with Dickinson. They should keep a lid on Houston's total put back opportunities.
6:30PM EST: Duke/UNC Under 151.5 (3 Units)
Duke is 22nd in Adj D while North Carolina ranks 6th. Tempo will play a major factor here and we like Duke at Home to play it at their level. They're 242nd in Adj T while UNC is 43rd. The Tarheels desire to play fast and get out in transition is well documented. Duke has one of the best transition defenses in the Nation ranking 21st in PPP and 341st in frequency. UNC ranks 35th in transition frequency but they're just 110th in PPP. Duke should force North Carolina into the half court more often than they would like. Duke's defense has played at an incredibly high level since their loss @ UNC just over a Month Ago. Over their last 9 games they've allowed just 62.5 points per game.
The overall intensity of this meeting should lead to a more physical game. A UNC win means sole possession of the ACC title while a Duke win would split it between them. Duke lost the first meeting so there's that added motivation. This is one of the biggest rivalries in all of College Basketball and the final regular season game. The first meeting went over playing to UNC's pace in their house but each of last year’s meetings flew well under the total. Jon Scheyer took over as HC for the Blue Devils last year. They've been much slower and elite defensively under his tenure.
