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CBB
(6 Picks).
1:30PM EST: Creighton -11.5 (3 Units).
This is about a talent disparity. Akron comes from the MAC Conference. A Conference comprised of a majority of teams that rank in the bottom half of the league. Akron's 162nd in Adj O, 96th in Adj D, and their strength of schedule ranked 217th. They didn't play a single Power-6 Team all year and lost all 3 of their games vs NCAA Tournament teams. A 20-point loss vs Drake, 3-point loss vs Utah State, and a 14-point loss vs JMU. Creighton's been playing great basketball and they do it on both ends of the floor. Akron's leading scorer is Forward Enrique Freeman at 18.6 PPG. He can shoot the 3 but he's made just 17 all season. He does most of his work at the Rim, but Creighton has one of the best rim protectors in the league in Ryan Kalkbrenner. Even if Creighton's perimeter shooting struggles their defense can cover this number for us. Akron hasn't played a team anywhere close to Creighton's level this season. From an offensive, defensive, and just pure athleticism standpoint.
7:10PM EST: Kentucky -13 (4 Units).
The Wildcats offense is going to have its way against Oakland's 166th ranked Adj Defense. Oakland is 230th in opponent 3-PT%, 290th in opponent 3-PT rate, 356th in opponent Open-3 Rate, 359th in PPP vs Catch & Shoot 3's, and 112th defending Off the Dribble 3's. Oakland's also defending this poorly against the 139th ranked offensive strength of schedule. Kentucky's one of the true Elite offenses in CBB and are the top 3-PT shooting team in the nation. They're not going to have an issue scoring. Defensively can be hit or miss at times for Kentucky but they've shown potential. They will have an athleticism edge over Oakland and the Golden Grizzlies offense isn't very good to begin with. They're 142nd in FG%, 112th in 3-PT%, and 152nd in turnovers per game. All of this against the 289th ranked defensive strength of schedule.
7:10PM EST: FANDUEL (UK) Reed Sheppard 4+ Made 3's +320 (2 Units).
Sheppard leads Kentucky and the nation shooting 52.5% from deep. He's made 4+ 3's in 2 of Kentucky's last 5 games. He's shot 50% or better from behind the Arc in 5 of his last 6 games with the lone exception being 40%. The volume and clean looks should be there for the talented freshman. Good value on the alternate line. If your sportsbook doesn't offer alternate lines, take his over 2.5 Made 3's +125.
7:10PM EST: (OAK) Trey Townsend Over 17.5 Points (3 Units).
Trey Townsend is the 1 player on the floor for Oakland that truly belongs at the top of the College Game. He's going to be highly coveted in the transfer portal following this season. He just scored 38 points in their conference championship game. He lives at the basket and has made just 7 3's all season. He's in line for a ton of work in this game with Oakland trying to keep pace with Kentucky but the Cats defense is worse inside than it is out. They rank 150th in opponent 2-PT FG% but are 102nd in opponent 3-PT %. They're 96th defensively finishing at the rim, 269th in PPP defending the midrange, and 199th in PPP defending post-up. Oakland's 40th, 48th, and 104th offensively in those situations and those play up because of Townsend. He's also played well against legit programs earlier this year. He scored 17 vs OSU, 19 vs ILL, 28 vs Xavier, 17 vs MSU, and 21 vs Dayton. All 5 of those teams rank higher in Adj D than Kentucky but they're also all worse offensively and play at a slower Tempo.
9:55PM EST: Kansas -7 (3 Units).
Kansas will be without Kevin McCullar Jr this tournament, but Hunter Dickinson is good to go. Obviously, that's quite a blow for Kansas but they're playing Samford... They've beaten both Baylor and Texas playing without Kevin McCullar in just the last Month. There is still plenty of talent on this roster and they have experience playing without their stars. They have one of the best coaches in the game as well. Samford's 68th in Adj O, 117th in Adj D, and have played a SOS that ranks 243rd. Samford opened the season against Purdue and lost 45-98. The following game they lost 65-75 to VCU. Samford doesn't have a Big that can stop Dickinson in this game. Defensively they're 255th in PPP Finishing at the rim and 343rd in PPP vs Post Up. Dickinson either feasts or Samford doubles him and opens up the rest of the Jayhawks offense. Kansas is one of the top defensive teams in the nation with or without McCullar. They finished the season ranked 11th in Adj D. Samford will hit some perimeter shots in this game but they'll need to hit a lot to keep this one close. Doesn't hurt to see the public absolutely hammering Samford. As of now over 75% of Money and Tickets are on Samford. This line’s been 7.5/7 since Sunday and hasn’t moved despite the money pouring in on the Bulldogs.
9:55PM EST: (KU) Dickinson Over 11.5 rebounds (2 Units).
Dickinson's 8th nationally averaging 10.8 rebounds per game. McCullar accounted for 6 rebounds per game and won't be on the floor. Samford has two players over 6'7. Forward Achor Achor who's 6'9, 225 and Freshman Center Riley Allenspach who's 6'11, 245. Dickinson's 7'2, 260. The Freshman only plays 12 minutes per game as well. Overall Samford's 190th in rebound rate and that's against very weak competition. Dickinson's the best and biggest rebounder on the floor at all times and barring foul trouble is poised for extended minutes.
