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(4 Picks).
1:00PM EST: VCU -2.5 (4 Units).
The Automatic Bid into the NCAA Tournament on the line in this A10 Tournament. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. They're pretty similar offensively and like to shoot the 3-Ball. VCU just isn't as dependent on it as St. Joe's and they're much stronger defensively than the Hawks. Overall VCU is 103rd in Adj O and 56th in Adj D. St. Joe's is 89th in Adj O and 118th in Adj D. St. Joe's is 13th in 3-PT Rate at 47.5% and VCU 37th at 43.9. St. Joe's shoots 35.9% from 3 and VCU 36.5%. VCU is 37th in PPP finishing at the rim while St. Joe's is 268th. VCU is also 84th in Free Throw Rate while St. Joe's is 261st. VCU is 10th in CBB shooting 78.8% from the FT Line while St. Joe's ranks 152n'd at 72.5%. Don't expect either team to have too much success from outside today. Tired legs in this game.
VCU defends the 3-PT Line much better as well. VCU is 45th in opponent 3-PT%, St. Joe's is 151st. VCU is 131st in Open-3 Rate, 79th in PPP defending catch & shoot 3's, and 35th in PPP defending 3's off the Dribble. St. Joe's is 235th, 249th, and 41st in those same categories. St. Joe's was 10/27 (37%) from Deep in their first tournament game but just 6/22 (27.3%) in game 2. St. Joe's has been inconsistent all year and it's because of their 3-PT dependency.
6:30PM EST: UCONN -9.5 (3 Units), Donovan Clingan to record 10+ rebounds +180 (FANDUEL) (3 Units).
No Tyler Kolek is going to catch up to Marquette here. He's their primary ball handler that's averaged 7.6 of Marquette's 16 assists per game. He's their 2nd leading scorer and rebounder and he's been out all of March. They lost @ CRE by 14 without him, by 7 at Home vs UConn, and beat Xavier by 6 to close out the regular season. They squeaked by Nova in OT in their first game of the Big East Tournament and pulled away from Providence late in game 2.
The Huskies are just a different animal. They're better in pretty much every major statistical category. UConn held a comfortable lead against St. John's pretty much the whole way yesterday, but the Red Storm just failed to go away. Was a weird game with Donovan Clingan dealing with foul trouble early. He only played 19 minutes. The Huskies should dominate the boards again today. They won and outrebounded Marquette 39-25 in their first meeting and 43-29 in their 2nd. Clingan had 10 and 12 rebounds in those games. UConn's 4th and Marquette's 281st in rebound rate. There's likely to be a few extra boards up for grabs today as efficiency should drop considering it's the 3rd game in 3 days for both squads. Clingan's legs are a bit fresher than they would be courtesy of the foul trouble yesterday.
8:30PM EST: North Carolina -10 (4 Units).
NC State can't have much juice left in the tank. This will be their 5th game in as many days, and they went into Overtime against Virginia last night. UNC is playing for the 3rd straight day, but they were on cruise control in their first win over FSU. North Carolina's pace and transition game will test NC State's legs this entire game. NC State ranks 140th in Adjusted Tempo which is slightly above average. UNC ranks 46th though and get out in transition the 31st most. UNC is going to make NC State run up and down the court all day. North Carolina's defense is an elite bunch. They're 6th in Adj D and they have Armando Bacot to stick on DJ Burns Jr. Burn's managed just 17 combined points in 2 games vs UNC this year. UNC won both games by 9 and 13. UNC is clearly a better basketball team, but NC State is playing well. Really comes down to the 5th game in 5 days as for why we like UNC to pull away and cover the big number.
