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CBB
(2 Picks....)
1:00PM EST: Tennessee -9.5 (3 Units)
The SEC Tournament is being held at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville Tennessee just a 15-minute ride from Campus. This is going to feel like a Home Game for the Volunteers. Tennessee lost @ Mississippi State in a game that came down to the wire in the beginning of Conference play this season. They're coming off a tight loss to Kentucky and they're competing for a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which would be the first in program history. Checking off pretty much every motivating factor for a team today.
X's and O's wise the Tennessee defense is the reason we like them to cover the number. They rank 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd in opponent FG%. The Home feel to this game is only going to make this defense even better. Kentucky and Auburn were the only 2 teams that managed to score against Tennessee at Home and that isn't surprising. They're the 6th and 10th ranked Adj Offenses in the league. They've destroyed everyone else at Home in Conference play. While this isn't a true Home Game it leans that way. Mississippi State's offense is going to be shooting on unfamiliar rims and dealing with a crowd. It's a road game for them.
The Vols offense can struggle at times outside of Dalton Knecht. He's been on fire of late, scoring 40 in their 4-point loss to Kentucky their last time out. They're 25th in Adj O while Mississippi State's 22nd in Adj D. Tennessee's defense should lead to some easy baskets though. MS ST ranks 289th averaging 12.4 turnovers per game. Tennessee's opponents average 13.3 turnovers per game. The Vols rank 75th in Adj Tempo. They like to and are comfortable playing fast. They get out in transition 72nd most in CBB and should get some easy baskets here.
Mississippi State also played yesterday. Not easy playing back-to-back and it's even tougher when you go up against a truly elite defense.
5:30PM EST: UCONN -9.5 (3 Units)
These two meet for the 3rd time this year and 2nd time at the Garden. UCONN won both games 69-64 at Home on December 23rd and 77-64 at the Garden on February 2nd. The 5-point win at Home was without star Center Donovan Clingan. He was injured in the game prior vs Seton Hall.
They're just a tough matchup for St. John's. The Red Storm excel on the boards and create havoc defensively with their matchup zone. UConn's 4th in rebound rate to St. John's 28th. UConn's also 40th overall in 3-PT shooting and has spot up shooters all over the floor. Even Clingan's capable of knocking them down. That match-up zone will leave people open at the perimeter and the Huskies are 1st in assists per possession.
Offensively St. John's isn't an elite shooting team. They're 142nd in FG% and 204th in both 3-PT and FT%. They're one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Country but again that's a strength on strength. Joel Soriano had just 6 points and 4 rebounds in the 1 game Donovan Clingan played in. The Red Storm also shoot a ton of midrange shots which just won't cut it if UConn's knocking down 3's. The Huskies are 2nd in Adj O and 10th in Adj D. They're a likely #1 seed for a reason. They match up well on top of being the superior team.
