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(3 Picks)
CBB
2:30PM EST: Wisconsin -4.5 (3 Units).
The Badgers were playing like one of the best teams in the Country up until February hit. They lost to a few teams they shouldn't have while also dropping some close ones. They played well and covered in each of their past 2 games. They beat Rutgers at Home by double digits and then battled @ Purdue.
This is a nice little reset for Wisconsin and they're simply the better and more talented team. They're 18th in Adj O and 59th in Adj D. Their defensive metrics are bogged down by their terrible 3-PT defense. They're 348th in opponent 3-PT % and 316th in Open-3 Rate. That's just a non issue against Maryland. The Terps are 353rd in 3-PT % and don't have a single true 3-PT threat. Their top 4 players in 3-PT attempts shoot 32.1%, 33.8%, 26.4%, and 17.5%. It's just not how they're going to score. Maryland's also playing it's 3rd game in just 5 days. They played yesterday as well as Sunday. Bit more fatigue than usual and tired legs negatively effect perimeter shooting. Wisconsin's offense is plenty good enough to score on the tough Maryland defense. Their last 2 games came against two of the best defenses in the Country and they managed just fine. Wisconsin will also have the crowd. This Tournament's being played hours away from Home and Wisconsin's a top tier program with a National brand.
7:00PM EST: Providence +8.5 (3 Units), CRE/PROV Under 142 (2 Units).
Providence is a quality basketball team and first year head coach Kim English is the real deal. They're 20-12 on the season and 11-10 in Conference play. Doesn't seem like much but this is a team that lost their best player for the season in their 3rd conference game. They've rallied around Big East player of the Year Devin Carter. This Providence team has caused issues for Creighton this year. They split the series with Providence losing @ CRE 60-69 and beating them at Home in OT 91-87. That first game @ CRE was the first full game Providence played without their star player Bryce Hopkins. Creighton hasn't played spectacular away from Home. Their 3-PT% is 4.2% higher when playing at Home. The Friars have a truly elite defense. They're 17th in Adj D and there's just an overall toughness about them. Creighton's 22nd in Adj D themselves.
This should be a more physical contest. The Big East is arguably the most physical conference as it is but neither team fouls much while playing elite defense. Creighton is 1st in fouls per possession and 1st in opponent FT Rate. Providence is 61st and 39th in those same categories. Creighton really doesn't foul much at all. Refs give the benefit of the doubt to strong defensive teams with a reputation for playing strong and clean defense. It just influences how refs will call a game be it consciously or not. Creighton playing as clean as they do also keeps opposing foul calls down. Refs don't want to call lopsided games and "dictate" the outcome.
