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(1 Pick)
7:00PM EST: Illinois vs Iowa Over 171.5 (4 Units)
Illinois is 70% and Iowa 66.7% towards the Over on the year. This is a very high total but these two combined for 180 in their first meeting. With Iowa at Home today there will be a ton of possessions. Iowa ranks 26th in Adj Tempo this season but they average the 5th most possessions per game when playing at Home. Illinois also likes to play fast, ranking 65th in Adj T.
Both teams are offensive juggernauts. Illinois ranks 4th and Iowa 9th in Adj Offensive efficiency. Illinois is 11th and Iowa 13th in points per game. Defensively it's an entirely different story. Illinois is 97th and Iowa 165th in Adj Defensive efficiency. Illinois ranks 203rd and Iowa 329th in points allowed per game. Illinois being on the road is important for this matchup. At Home Illinois has allowed just 68.1 points per game. That's 5.2 points below their season average. When playing on the road they've allowed 81.2 PPG. That ranks 327th. Big reason the Over is 9-1 in Illinois road games this year. Iowa just plain sucks on defense though. They've allowed over 76 points per game at Home. Illinois's offense is too potent, and they travel just fine. They're averaging 86.6 PPG on the road this season, 2nd most. Both teams are strong at the charity stripe. Illinois shoots 74.5% (76th) and Iowa 78.7% (11th). Going to be a big factor with the extra possessions in this game. The transition defenses are also bad. Illinoi's 160th and Iowa 304th in PPP defense. There's going to be some very quick scoring barrages throughout this game.
Neither team is dependent on the 3-Ball to score either. Illinois is 139th and Iowa 337th in 3-PT Rate. They're 118th and 146th in 3-PT% too. Despite that these offenses thrive and we could see stronger perimeter shooting today. Illinois ranks 241st in opponent 3-PT%, 86th in defensive Open 3 Rate, 189th in PPP vs Catch and Shoot 3's, and 287th in PPP vs Off the Dribble 3's. Iowa ranks 289th in opponent 3-PT %, 309th in defensive Open 3 Rate, 311th in PPP vs Catch and Shoot 3's, and 281st in PPP vs Off the Dribble 3's. There was a total of just 14 made 3's in their first meeting and they still combined for 180. This game could fly over with strong outside shooting and both teams are stroking it at the moment. Illinois is shooting 42.6% and Iowa 45.8% from deep over their last 3 games.
