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CBB
(1 Pick)
7:00PM EST: Virginia -5.5 (4 Units)
After a sluggish start to Conference Play, Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are quietly sitting alone in 2nd place in the ACC following 6 straight wins. True to form Bennett's squad is back to playing truly Elite defense as they did when they were National Contenders. They're a Perfect 12-0 at Home this season and own the longest Home Game win streak in CBB at 22. They've allowed just 1 team to score more than 60 at Home and it was in an 84-62 blowout Win over Syracuse. Virginia's 11th in Adj D and holding teams to just 39.4% from the field (7th) and 36.1% at Home. They just showed they can handle good offense @ Clemson too. Clemson's 23rd in Adj O, averages 79 points per game and shooting 46.9% from the field this season. They scored just 65 points in the loss to Virginia on 35.7% shooting.
Miami's just 2-4 on the road this season and lost their last road game 68-74 vs NC State. Their defense has been terrible all season long, ranking 115th in Adj D. While Virginia's offense leaves some to be desired at times, they are a quality 3-PT shooting team. They rank 36th shooting 37.1% from 3 on the year and shoot 39.7% from 3 at Home. They're also red hot as of late, shooting 45.6% over their last 3 games. It's bad news for a Miami defense that ranks 350th in opponent 3-PT Rate. 45.5% of their defensive possessions end with a 3-PT shot being taken and that's nearly 50% over their last few games.
The Miami defense has slowed down just 1 Power 6 opponent all year and it was Notre Dame who ranks 310th in Adj O. While Virginia's offense isn't great, they've shown they can score at Home, specifically against weaker defenses. They scored 73 vs Florida, 77 vs Louisville, beat V-Tech 65-57, and blew out a Syracuse defense that ranks 36th in Adj D. Miami's also an up-tempo squad that tries to push the pace. That will result in a few more possessions than usual for a Virginia Home game which will only help cover the decent spread.
