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CBB
(4 Picks)
12:00PM EST: Texas Tech/Iowa St Over 135.5 (3 Units).
Combination of Iowa State's ascending offense, Tech's terrible defense, and Tech's 3-PT shooting. ISU is averaging 72.4 points per game and just went into Cincinnati and scored 69. Tech has one of the worst defenses in the Big 12. They're 68th in the Country in Adj D and are allowing over 76 points per game on the road. They're allowed 77+ in each of their last 4 road games. Defensively Iowa State is one of the best teams in the Country, but they do struggle defending the 3-PT Line. They're 183rd in opponent 3-PT %, 212th in defensive Open 3-Rate, and 308th in PPP against Catch & Shoot 3's. Tech's 24th nationally shooting 37.5% from 3 and we took full advantage of that earlier this week. These teams also rank 74th and 108th in turnovers per game. ISU ranks 3rd in opponent turnovers per game too. That's going to lead to some quick transition baskets and it's an area both teams excel in. ISU is 26th and TT 33rd in PPP in transition offense. Defensively Tech ranks 174th and ISU 72nd. Tech's good enough to hang around but ISU should pace this over the low total.
3:00PM EST: (UCONN) Donovan Clingan Over 6.5 Rebounds (4 Units).
Most props are set based on season averages and this is a prime example. Clingan hasn't really played up to a full workload for much of this season. He dealt with an injury but he's averaging just 20.4 minutes per game this year. He averaged 5.6 rebounds per game on just 13 minutes backing up Adama Sanogo last year. He's one of the best Bigs in the Country and this is UConn's biggest game of the year. The last competitive game UConn played was against Butler on February 6th and he snagged 14 rebounds in 28 minutes. A win for UConn here and they all but wrap up the Big East regular season title. Barring foul trouble, he's going to be on the floor for extended minutes tonight against a Marquette team that ranks 232nd in Rebound Rate. Clingan also owns a 3 inch and 45-pound advantage over Marquette's starting "Big" Oso Ighodaro.
4:00PM EST: Kansas -1 (3 Units).
McCullar is on track to play this game. He may be limited but his presence is needed. Hunter Dickinson should be a force in this one though. The Sooners don't play a single guy over 6'10. Dickinson stands 7'2. He struggled against Texas Tech as we thought he would, but Oklahoma lacks the size and experience that Tech was able to throw at him. Prior to that game Dickinson had scored 19+ in 4 straight road games for Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road this year, but he's been a steady performer. Kansas still has an elite defense too. They've struggled to defend the 3-Ball but that's not Oklahoma's game. They're 163rd in 3-PT% and are 153rd in 3-PT Rate. The Jayhawks are 17th in Adj D to Oklahoma's 56th ranked Adj O. It was that Kansas defense that got them the win over Baylor without McCullar. OU is far from elite at Home too. They've lost to Texas and Texas Tech and just squeaked by Oklahoma State 66-62 the game prior to their last, a 62-79 blowout @ Baylor. There's also the Bill Self factor. Even if McCullar is limited there's plenty of talent for one of the best NCAA Basketball coaches to work with. He'll get these boys up to speed without him and it starts defensively where they hold a significant edge over Oklahoma.
6:00PM EST: Kentucky/Auburn Over 163.5 (4 Units)
Fading the Wildcats defense again. They have tremendous issues on that side of the ball, especially on the road. When they went into Gonzaga last week, they gave up 89 points and the Bulldogs only made 4 3's the entire game. Right now, Kentucky ranks 104th in Adj D while Auburn's 9th in Adj O. The Tigers offense has also been humming lately too. They laid an egg @ Florida 2 games ago but in their other 3 most recent contests, 101, 99, and 91 points scored. The 101 and 99 were each of their last 2 Home games. Both of these teams really push the pace too. Kentucky's 12th and Auburn 66th in Tempo. Unlike Kentucky the Tigers do own a good defense but the Wildcats are 7th overall in Adj O and rank 3rd in CBB averaging 88.9 points per game. They can keep up enough to drive this over the total.
