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CBB
(2 Picks)
7:00PM EST: Iowa State +1.5 (3 Units).
These teams are similar and led by their defense. Iowa State's just better across the board here. They're 44th in Adj O and 3rd in Adj D to Cinci's 66th and 20th. They're better in pretty much every major category outside of rebounding and blocked shots. Iowa State's offense has been much better recently compared to earlier in the season, averaging 73 points per game over their last 7. The transition game should really benefit Iowa State tonight. Iowa State's 26th offensively and 69th defensively in PPP in transition. Cinci's 304th offensively and 90th defensively. Transition opportunities present themselves after a miss and the Cyclones should force plenty. Cinci's also really aggressive on the offensive glass which is why they struggle defending in transition. The Bearcats are going to have to grind out possessions in the half court for their baskets and this is one of the toughest defenses in the Country. They just played a very high energy and intense game at Home against Houston on Saturday too. Hard to bring that level in back-to-back games, especially when you're 4-6 in Conference play. Houston has the #1 defense in the Country and held Cinci to just 37% from the floor. Iowa State's 2nd in the Big 12 and shouldn't be caught sleepwalking here.
9:00PM EST: BYU -12 (3 Units).
UCF is 1-5 on the road this season, with 4 of those losses coming by double digits. They're strong defensively, 9th in Adj D but rank 184th in Adj O. BYU gets a lot of credit for their offense and for good reason but they're elite defensively as well, ranking 24th in Adj D. Their defense is plenty capable of stopping a UCF offense that ranks 216th in points per game and averages just 64.5 PPG on the road.
The one area UCF's defense struggles to defend is their 3-PT Line. They're 143rd in opponent 3-PT % and have allowed teams to shoot 36.7% from 3 on the road. Defensively they're 239th in Open 3-Rate, 169th in PPP against Catch & Shoot 3's, and 362nd against off the Dribble 3's. It's a big reason why they're 201st in opponent 3-PT Rate. BYU ranks 68th in 3-PT % at 36.1 but they're 2nd in the nation in 3-PT Rate. Over 50% of their possessions end in a 3-PT shot. They're 7 deep with perimeter shooters and it's how they beat teams.
