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Courtside Players Club

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Courtside Players Club (2/10/24)

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CBB

(4 Picks)


12:30PM EST: Xavier -1.5 (3 Units).


Xavier's playing very good basketball lately and coming off a poor shooting performance. They still put up 61 shot attempts in their win over Villanova but made just 21 (34.4%). We like them to rebound offensively against a Blue Jays defense that's struggling. Their last time out they gave up 78 to Providence in regular time and 91 total including OT. Creighton also had their best 3-PT performance in a long time knocking down 14 of 29 3's (48.3%) and still managed to come up short. Game prior to that they lost 98-99 at Home vs Butler. They owned Depaul 85-62, beat Xavier at Home 85-78, and then won @ Seton Hall 97-94 in Triple Overtime. Seton Hall was also without their best player Kadary Richmond. Xavier put up more shots than Creighton in that game 71-57 but the Blue Jays went 11/28 from 3. That's going to be tough for Creighton to replicate offensively on the road and Xavier's actually done a solid job defending the 3-PT Line this year. They're 19th in CBB in Open 3 Rate defensively and are holding teams to 33.2% from 3. That's also down to 26.7% over their last 3. Xavier's shown they can score on Creighton's defense and now they get them at Home where they're 5-1 in Conference play with their lone loss coming to UConn 75-80. Tough to win on the road and even harder when trying to beat the same team twice.


3:30PM EST: Florida +2 (4 Units).


Classic let down spot following a big win. Auburn just smoked Alabama at Home in what was easily their best performance of the year. Alabama was the #1 team in the Conference at the time and the Bama/Auburn rivalry is one of the biggest in sports. Lows follow the high and Florida is no slouch. They're 9-1 at Home this season with their only loss coming to Kentucky by 2. They're 10th in points per game, first in rebounds per game at 41.6, and 10th in rebound rate %. Auburn's made themselves the team to beat in the SEC and the O'Connell center will be rocking.


Nobody is immune to road woes and Auburns no exception. They're 3-3 SU on the road this season with losses @ Appalachian State, @ Alabama, and @ Mississippi State. Their road wins have come against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss. It's an unimpressive road resume and this is as hostile an environment to travel into.


4:00PM EST: Gonzaga/Kentucky Over 167.5 (4 Units).


There's a reason this total is sky high and it's because of Tempo. Kentucky's 11th in Adj T while Gonzaga ranks 61st. Kentucky has one of the best offenses in the Country and it's easily the most athletic and aggressive bunch that Gonzaga has and will face this season. Gonzaga's offensive SOS ranks just 135th this season and that's because they play in such a weak conference. Gonzaga has played both UConn and Purdue this year, allowing 76 and 73 points. They're 1st and 3rd in Adj O while Kentucky ranks 5th. Purdue's 159th in Adj T and 14th in Adj D while UConn's 324th in Adj T and14th in Adj D. Kentucky's all offense as they rank 102nd in Adj D. They're not going to have an issue scoring on Gonzaga.


Offensively Gonzaga put up 63 in both of those games against elite defense. Kentucky's 318th in points allowed per game and have given up over 80 points per game on the road this season. Gonzaga averages 87 points per game at Home and are always one of the most fundamentally sound teams under HC Mark Few. Kentucky's bad at defense because they're just bad at defense. Some schools might not have the athletes, but Kentucky isn't one of them. Kentucky just blew out Vanderbilt 109-77 but surrendered 103 and 94 at Home the 2 games prior. Vanderbilt is the worst team in the SEC. Gonzaga will be able to pick apart this leaky Kentucky defense.


10:00PM EST: Colorado -1 (3 Units).


Colorado's a top 30 basketball team and are a perfect 13-0 at Home this season with wins over the current 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in the Pac-12. That 16-7 record could be a bit better but 2 of their best players have been injured and missed time. They're also just 1-6 on the road. There's a ton of hype surrounding this Arizona basketball team, but they've failed to live up to the elite billing. They're 9-3 in Conference play and are just 4-3 on the road. They just won in Triple overtime @ Utah on Thursday and it's a quick turnaround following the extended minutes. Arizona also boat-raced Colorado at Home earlier this year. That was a game Colorado played without 2 of their best players but that leaves a bad taste in one’s mouth. Not that they needed extra motivation hosting the #1 team in the Conference and NCAA Tournament favorites but there is. This Colorado team is better than people realize and their defense clamps down at Home allowing just 66.4 points per game. They also played on Thursday but coasted to a win over ASU. Fresh Legs at Home in front of a packed house.

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