CBB
(1 Pick)
6:30PM EST: Monmouth/Seton Hall Over 140.5 (3 Units)
Was handed a brutal beat on the Under the last time the Pirates played but we like them to have actual offensive success today. Seton Hall isn't a great shooting team and they're going to struggle all year against good, long, athletic defenses. Monmouth if far from a strong defensive team and Seton Hall's much more athletic. The talent gap is a huge reason for why Seton Hall's offense will be grooving.
They're a downhill attack the basket team and when playing inferior talent, they've had no issues. They've played 5 games against teams in the bottom half of CBB and scored 70, 85, 96, 72, and 88. The Hawks are also one of the worst defensive teams of the bunch. Ranking 273rd in opponent effective FG% and 281st in opponent 2PT FG%. The 2-PT% is also up to 63.4 over their last 3 games, thanks to a rise in competition. They've allowed 71 to Northern Illinois, 91 to Cornell, and 76 to Penn over that span. They also allowed 84 to Belmont, 79 to Lehigh, and 82 to Princeton earlier this season.
They also average 18.1 personal fouls per game, 220th in CBB. Seton Hall ranks 28th shooting 76.8% from the charity stripe. Seton Hall will also get some easy transition baskets. They're averaging 8.3 steals per game (60th). They like to apply pressure and with the step down in competition it's only going to get easier. They're also coming off back-to-back losses and a couple poor shooting performances. Like them to rebound and keep the pedal down as they try and build momentum before conference play.
Defensively, however there's one very big weakness for the Pirates that plays right into Monmouth's hands. It's their 3-PT defense and it is awful. The Pirates rank 191st in opponent 3-PT % and even an awful shooting Rutgers team went 12/24 from behind the line. Some of that's just hot shooting but Rutgers had consistent open looks from behind the Arc and that’s a growing theme. Baylor also went 10/22 from 3 against them, Iowa 7/19, and USC 10/23. The bottom half teams they've played all just shoot terribly from outside or they would rank far worse.
Monmouth ranks 22nd in CBB shooting 39.2% from beyond the Arc. When they upset West Virginia, they shot 10/23 from deep. We point out WVU because they're a more athletic team, like Seton Hall. The WVU defense also grades out better than Seton Hall's so far this season. Monmouth scored 73 IN West Virginia that day. They can score and with that perimeter shooting we like them to keep pace with Seton Hall.
The Pirates are more of a half-court team and don't operate fast but a lot of that's just from offensive struggles. They hold the ball longer on offense because they don't get great looks. Against the 5 aforementioned bad teams, they've put up 54, 58, 58, 68, and 42 shots. The 42 was their first game of the year and against St. Peters. Built in rivalry there as Seton Hall's current Head Coach made his darling run and got the Pirates job because of the work he did at St. Peters. They still scored 70 points anyway.
