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CBB
(2 Picks)
12:00PM EST: Seton Hall +5.5 (4 Units)
It's tough to win road games in College Basketball but the Big East specifically. UConn got smoked @ Seton Hall a few weeks ago and Marquette got smoked @ Providence. The top 2 teams in the Big East and National Contenders both started 0-1 in Big East play courtesy of road losses. Part of that's being who they are, you're guaranteed a conference rival best shot when you show up to town highly ranked, like #7 Marquette will today.
The Pirates are starting to put it together under 2nd year head coach Shaheen Holloway. Coming into this year they projected to finish towards the bottom of the Big East but they're off to a 2-1 start in Conference play with a pair of impressive wins. They smoked UConn by 15 and just went into Providence and won by 4. The Friars have been one of the best Home teams in the Nation the past few years. In between those wins is a rough loss @ Xavier. The Pirates aren't perfect, but they have a lengthy history of showing up at Home.
Seton Hall has the formula to pull off the upset. As talented as Marquette is, they don't rebound very well. They rank 203rd in rebound rate and 131st in opponent offensive rebounds per game. Seton Hall ranks 52nd in rebound rate, 8th in offensive rebounding %, and 10th in offensive rebounding per game. They crash the offensive boards as well as anyone. That's what cost Marquette in their road loss @ Wisconsin, getting outrebounded 18-33 and allowing 12 offensive boards.
Marquette is 1-2 on the road this year, dropping each of their last 2. They haven't been a great shooting team this year. They're 101st in FG% and 221st in 3PT%. They've shot just 26.8% from deep in those 3 road games combined. UConn couldn't hit perimeter shots when they went into Prudential Center and they struggled to score all night long. The Pirates play tough defensively inside.
Seton Hall ranks 335th in 3-PT Rate. The Pirates do not shoot very many 3's nor do they want to. This is a team that's constantly attacking the basket and that gets them trips to the charity stripe where they rank 52nd in CBB. The Pirates are also bound to start hitting more 3-PT shots eventually. Their best player Kadary Richmond shot 44% from deep last year but is shooting just 15% this season. He never finished a season below 33%. In fact, all 4 of their top 3-PT shooters are currently shooting worse from beyond the Arc this year than they have in years past. They're coming off one of their best performances of the season, knocking down 7/16 (43.8%) against Providence. If that momentum carries over Seton Hall could pull off another upset.
1:00PM EST: Villanova -3.5 (4 Units)
Tough road match up for the Red Storm. We're bullish on St. John's this year but this is one of the toughest venues to go and play at on top of being a bad matchup. St. John's dominates the offensive glass, ranking 5th in offensive rebounding % and 4th in offensive rebounds per game. Villanova ranks 11th in defensive rebounding % and 19th allowing just 6.6 opponent offensive rebounds per game though. That's going to mess with St. John's flow in this game.
Pitino's squad likes to play fast, ranking 85th in AdjT. Villanova on the other hand does not, ranking 327th in AdjT. There are 362 teams by the way. This game is going to be played closer to Villanova's pace than it will be St. John's. With the Wildcats at Home and them doing such a good job on the defensive glass it's hard to see the Red Storm pushing possessions up in this one.
St. John's is 1-1 on the road this year with their win coming against an awful 5-8 West Virginia team that ranks 124th per KenPom. They won by 6 but that was a 2-point game with under 2 minutes remaining. They competed at UConn but that was a Huskies team that lost their Star big man Donovan Clingan just 3 days prior. There's a lot of new pieces at St. John's, including HC Rick Pitino. One of their better guards RJ Luis Jr has only played in 4 games too. They rank 185th in turnovers per game and get a bit sloppy at times. The Red Storm will play cleaner brand of basketball later in the year but it's a bit early to take their talents on the road. Villanova ranks 17th in AdjD too.
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