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CBB
(1 Pick)
8:30PM EST: (Purdue) Braden Smith Over 1.5 Three's Made +155 (2 Units). Some sportsbooks will word this as 2+ Made Threes.
Smith is their primary ball-handler and as such he ranks 3rd on the team in 3-PT Attempts. He's made 22/45 (48.9%) of 3's on the season. He's been much more active from deep recently and against top tier talent. Purdue's played 3 Power-6 opponents over their last 5 games, and he went over this prop in all 3. He didn't go over in the other 2 against Eastern Kentucky or Jacksonville but that's because they were blowouts and he played 24 and 23 minutes. He also made 4 of 6 in their win over then ranked #4 Marquette earlier this year.
Purdue Head Coach Matt Painter is known for having teams that shoot plenty of 3's. They got off to a slow start in that department this year, but their 3-PT rate is starting to tick up towards previous seasons. This specific matchup also plays into that. Purdue and Illinois met last year, and the Boilermakers beat them by 5. Smith himself went 2/2 from deep in that game. They doubled Edey and put a lot of pressure on him to throw the big man off his game and it worked. Edey went 6/13 from the field and finished with just 17 points and 6 rebounds. They're likely to do the same tonight as they don't have a Center on the roster to defend them. They have longer forwards but their longest is just 6'10. Zach Edey is 7'4 and 300 pounds. Someone is open outside if you're doubling inside.
Then there's the loss of Guard Terrance Shannon Jr. He was Illinois's best player and was just recently suspended following a Rape charge. Not only was he their leading scorer but he was also a great perimeter defender. Illinois has played 2 games without him so far, allowing Northwestern to shoot 50% from 3 and FDU 41.4%.
Real good value +150 or higher which is where every book has this at the time of writing. This is one for Purdue's primary ball-handler. Smith's been much more aggressive putting up 3-PT shots than he was earlier this year and last year too.
