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Courtside Players Club (1/31/24)

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(3 Picks)

6:30PM EST: St. John's/Xavier Over 156.5 (3 Units), J Soriano Over 9.5 Rebounds (2 Units).

Two faced past teams meeting for the 2nd time. Xavier is much better offensively at Home and really pushes the tempo there. They've scored less than 74 points just one time at Home and it came against Houston, the #1 defense in the Country. Going back, they've scored 92, 85, and 85 at Home. They're also fresh off an absolute ass whooping on the road against UConn so we expect a strong sense of urgency for them tonight.

St. John's put up 81 points against Xavier in their first meeting December 20th. That game was played at Home, however. 1 thing holds true and that Xavier struggles against elite Bigs. They don't have a true Center on the roster and St. John's Joel Soriano dominated them the first time scoring 18 and grabbing 14 rebounds, including 6 offensive. Donovan Clingan scored 18 and grabbed 8 rebounds on limited minutes against them in their last game and Ryan Kalkbrenner had 16 points and 9 rebounds the game prior.

Both of these teams are strong rebounding teams but it's on the offensive end. St. John's is 30th in rebound rate and Xavier's 80th. St. John's is just 235th in defensive rebounding % and Xavier 225th. Some quick easy putback opportunities will help drive this total up. Free Throws will also help. St. John's is 240th in fouls per game and Xavier's 190th. The fast-paced transition game will only help drive those numbers up too.

7:30PM EST: Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Made 3's (2 Units).

Herro's gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games and that's thanks in large part to the addition of Terry Rozier. Since joining Miami Herro's provided more spot up shooting. Limited sample but in the 5 games since acquiring Rozier he's averaged 9.6 3-PT attempts compared to his season average of 8.2. He's a 40% 3-PT shooter and is incredible valuable in the catch and shoot roll and Rozier enables him to do it more. The Kings defense ranks 16th in opponent 3-PT Rate and are 29th in opponent 3-PT %. Miami's also at Home which makes defense harder for the Kings and offense easier for Miami. Herro's 3-PT % is 41.6% at Home compared to 38.7% on the road.


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