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CBB
(3 Picks)
6:30 PM EST: Tennessee -13.5 (4 Units).
Just 2 different levels of Basketball programs. South Carolina may be 17-3 and Tennessee 15-4 but the Vols are one of the top teams in the Country. They're 4th overall per KenPom to South Carolina's 53rd ranking. Tennessee's strength of schedule ranks 6th and South Carolina's 129th. Tennessee lost to then #2 Purdue and #1 Kansas during the Maui Invitational. Then they lost their first road game @ North Carolina. They've won 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss coming on the road to a Mississippi State team with a truly elite defense.
South Carolina's non-conference SOS ranked 329th. They've played two legitimate basketball teams this year in Alabama and Kentucky. They went into Alabama and got blown out 47-74. They did pick up a dominant win over Kentucky at Home but that Kentucky squad is having its fair share of struggles this season. Altogether South Carolina is 3-2 on the road but the resume is less than impressive. 67-72 L @ Clemson, 68-62 W @ East Carolina, 47-74 L @ ALA, 71-69 OT W @ MIZZU, and a 77-64 W over ARK. ECU ranks 177th per KenPom and Arkansas and Missouri are the 2 worst teams in the SEC not named Vanderbilt. Their offense has struggled on the road and it's a miserable matchup for them against the #2 ranked defense in Adj D. Tennessee has won 5 straight and each Conference Home game by at least 19 points this season. That includes a 20-point blowout win over Alabama.
The Volunteers are truly one of the top teams in the Country and they absolutely dominate on their Home Floor. They're 40-2 SU at Home since the 21-22 Season. South Carolina overvalued from a weak schedule.
7:00PM EST: TCU Team Total Over 75.5 Points (3 Units), Trevian Tennyson Over 10.5 Points (2 Units).
TCU has been playing some very good basketball of late but have come down on the wrong side of a few close one’s courtesy of the Big 12 Gauntlet. They're just 4-3 in Conference Play with a 2 Point Loss @ Kansas, 4 Point Loss @ Cinci, and a 1-Point Loss at Home vs Iowa State. They did just pick up a big Triple Overtime Win @ Baylor their last time out. They've had to play some of the best defenses the conference has to offer but Texas Tech isn't one of them. Tech is 67th in Adj Defensive Efficiency have struggled on the road. They've allowed 76 or more in 3 of their 4 road contests this year. They've also allowed each of their last 3 opponents to go over this total.
TCU hasn't won at Home since January 13th. Losing their 1 lone home game of their last 4 contests to Iowa State. TCU's gone over this total in just 1 of their 3 Home conference games but look at the defensive schedule. They scored 72 vs ISU, 68 vs Houston, and 80 vs Oklahoma. ISU is 4th in Adj D, Houston is 1st, and Oklahoma is 27th. ISU is 121st in ADJ Tempo, Houston 350th, and Oklahoma 180th. TCU themselves is 64th in tempo and they've been able to push the pace at Home against some of the best defenses in the Country. They shouldn't have an issue against a much weaker Tech defense. Having not won at Home in quite some time we trust them to push the envelope tonight.
Matchup wise TCU should dominate the offensive glass. The Horned Frogs are 17th in Offensive Rebounding % while Texas Tech ranks 232nd in Defensive Rebounding %. TCU's also done that against some quality rebounding teams. Tech is also 207th in fouls per game while TCU is 60th in Free Throws attempted per game.
TCU should also see an added benefit from deep tonight. Despite ranking 330th in 3-PT Rate TCU still ranks 20th in points per game which is a bit unusual in the modern era. They shoot 34.3 % from deep as a team but it's Trevian Tennyson that's their 3-PT specialist. He's shooting 46.1% from 3 this season and he shot 40.2% last year. He's cemented himself as a full-time starter over TCU's last 9 games and has gone over his point total in 6 of those games. Texas Tech ranks 166th in opponent 3-PT %, 292nd in Opponent 3-PT Rate, and 273rd in Opponent Open 3 Rate. While Tech doesn't shoot the 3 much, they're 68th in Open 3 Rate offensively. Tennyson will get some open looks from deep and it’s always easier shooting at Home.
