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CBB
(1 Pick)
9:00 PM EST: Houston/BYU Over 135.5 (3 Units)
These are two strong defensive teams. Houston's ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency while BYU ranks 20th. Houston is 17th in AdjO and BYU 13th, however. The lines just a bit too low here. With BYU at Home we like this game to be played closer to their quicker tempo than Houston's snail’s pace. Part of that's because of how poor each team’s transition defense is. BYU is 75th in PPP in transition offense to Houston's 232nd defensively. Houston's offense is 23rd in PPP to BYU's 338th defensively. BYU gets out in transition the 7th most in CBB this season which is going to give Houston a chance to do the same.
Both squads also foul entirely too much. BYU ranks 201st and Houston 268th in fouls per game. BYU specifically has really struggled in this department in conference play. BYU just joined the BIG-12 conference this season and are up against much better athletes than in years past. Through 5 conference games they've averaged 19.8 fouls per game. If that were their season average, they'd rank 330th. Houston is a very athletic bunch, and they play smaller without a man over 6'8. That's going to present issues for the BYU defense.
Offensively BYU can take care of business at Home. They hosted Iowa State last week and dropped 87 on them. ISU ranks 3rd in AdjD. The BYU defense has surrendered 71 and 72 in their 2 Conference Home Games as well. With some easy transition baskets and plenty of trips to the FT line this should push past the total. This projects to be a tightly contested matchup as well which should lead to plenty of end game fouls.
