Follow the Unit Instructions.
CBB
(3 Picks)
12:00PM EST: Butler -3.5 (3 Units)
The Bulldogs host a hot Seton Hall team but they're coming off a huge road win over Marquette themselves. They're 8-1 at Home with their only loss coming to the reigning National Champs. They lost to UConn 81-88 but that was a 1-point game with under a minute to go before the Huskies pulled away. The Pirates are 2-2 on the road this season. They lost at Baylor by 18, at Xavier by 20, Won at Providence by 4, and beat Georgetown by 4 their last time out. Providence lost their 2nd leading scorer halfway through the game against the Pirates and Georgetown just isn't a great team.
Like Seton Hall to cool off here. It's hard to win games on the road and their turnovers are bound to catch up to them. Going back, they've had 16, 19, and 14 turnovers. Each of their last 3 wins have been by 4 or less and they've overcome the turnovers from the perimeter, shooting over 40% from deep in each of those 3 games. Despite that Seton Hall still ranks 253rd in the Nation shooting just 32% from deep. While they're a bit better than that, they aren't a great 3-PT shooting team. It's just not a sustainable winning formula, especially on the road. Butler HC Thad Matta has a 31-8 record when coaching at Hinkle Fieldhouse for the Bulldogs. Butler's also the 8th best Free Throw shooting team in the nation which will come in handy during a close out situation.
12:00PM EST: North Carolina -12.5 (4 Units)
The Tarheels are playing their first meaningful home game since December 2nd. They've played 1 Home game since then and it was a 105-60 blowout win over Charleston Southern. They were laying 32 points that was expected. They did play Oklahoma right in their backyard on December 20th at the Spectrum Center and won by 12. That certainly had the Home Crowd feel but still, not on their Home floor. This will be a highly anticipated game for UNC players and fans alike. This is a National Contender, and the city knows it.
UNC has 3 losses but it's hard to knock them for either. They lost to Villanova by 2 in the Bahamas on a back-to-back and at #5 UConn and at #14 Kentucky. They hung around against a fully loaded UConn team, but the Kentucky game came down to the wire. This is one of the best teams in the Country and a Veteran bunch.
Syracuse is 1-2 on the road this season. They got blown out by 22 in their first road game @ Virginia, won in Georgetown, then got blown out by 20 @ Duke. Adrian Autry is in his first year as Head Coach after replacing his Mentor and longtime Cuse HC Jim Boeheim. As such the Orange aren't as talented or as well coached. The road issues in conference play do not surprise us and we expect them to continue today.
This should be a high-flying affair and that will help us cover the number. Syracuse ranks 41st in AdjT while UNC ranks 64th. It's a brutal matchup for the Orange that's much worse without their starting Center. At 7'4 Naheem McLeod was a deterrent at the rim and their only true Big. Without him they’re playing Forwards and that's an issue defending Armando Bacot. The 5th year Center for UNC has 146 career starts under his belt and will be defended primarily by 3 guys that are all shorter, lighter, and have 77 career starts combined.
Then there's the 3-PT Line. Syracuse ranks 306th defensively in Open 3 Rate while UNC ranks 19th offensively and shoots 36% from deep. Pick your poison scenario for the Orange. Syracuse also ranks 187th in turnovers per game while UNC has one of the best transition offenses in the Nation. UNC also ranks 28th forcing 19.9 opponent fouls per game and shoot over 75% from the charity stripe. UNC is bigger, faster, and more athletic than Syracuse and inferior teams find themselves in foul trouble quite a bit when overmatched.
North Carolina also ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has played the 9th hardest offensive schedule this year. Syracuse ranks 143rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and has been shut down by every respectable defense they've faced. North Carolina's going to score in bunches in this one with Syracuse playing right into their hands with Tempo. Playing a meaningful game on their Home Court for the first time in a long time and feeding off that crowd, we like them to show out and run this up to the point Syracuse can't backdoor cover.
1:00PM EST: St. John's/Creighton Over 151.5 (4 Units)
Both offenses excel in areas of weakness for the opposing defense. St. John's hasn't played a ton of good 3-PT shooting teams, but they've been cooked by each and everyone. Against St. John's Michigan went 11/26 (42.3%), Dayton 7/17 (41.2%), Utah 11/25 (44%), and even Hofstra went 12/28 (42.9%). Creighton is right there as one of the best 3-PT shooting teams in the Nation and they rank 7th in the Country in 3-PT Rate (49%).
They're also coming off a game in which they made 12/32 (37.5%) 3's on the road and they're just due to get hot. Prior to that game they had shot below their season average in 5 of their last 6 games and the 1 outlier came courtesy of an uncontested make with just 6 seconds remaining in the game. The Red Storm defense has outright lost guys on the perimeter at times throughout the season. It nearly cost them against Providence as they let the Friars back in late. The Bluejays run a ton of off-ball plays to free up shooters for the catch and shoot and the Red Storm have been below average defending that.
Freshman Brady Dunlap has also been thrust into a starting role for St. John's. He's an excellent shooter but a liability defensively. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to stay in front of athletic ball handlers and he forces the Red Storm defense into help situations. Creighton ranks #1 in spacing, and they will isolate him. That ball will be kicked out to open shooters when the help defense arrives. Dunlap's played 28+ minutes in each of St. John's previous 3 games and they allowed 70 or more in every contest and too much lesser offenses. They have scored 75+ themselves in each however.
Offensively for St. John's Joel Soriano has proven he can handle Creighton big Ryan Kalkbrenner. In 2 games against Creighton last year, he went 14/24 for 33 points and racked up 7 offensive rebounds. He'll also be able to pull Kalkbrenner away from the Rim as he's capable of hitting a 3 but he's really excelled in the midrange this year as well. The Red Storm have plenty of guys capable of getting to the basket.
St. John's offensive rebounding is going to allow them to hang around in this game. They're 4th in CBB averaging 13.6 offensive rebounds per game. Creighton gave up 16 offensive rebounds to Alabama and 17 to Marquette. Ryan Kalkbrenner is 7'1 and came down with just 3 rebounds against Marquette despite playing 35 minutes. He's their 2nd leading rebounder behind a 6'7 guard. He's not Elite on the boards and Soriano outrebounded him 17-13 in their 2 meetings last year.
St. John's will also look to push the pace in this one. Creighton has one of the better half court defenses in the Nation but they're 123rd in PPP defensively in transition. St. John's ranks 45th in transition frequency offensively and they play faster as it is, ranking 74th in AdjT.
