NCAAF
(11/2/22) 7:30 PM Eastern.
Spread: Central Michigan +6 / Northern Illinois -5
Moneyline: CMU +225 / NIU -185
Total: Over / Under 57
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Back to the MAC with a pair of teams looking to salvage their season. Central Michigan and Northern Illinois both come into this game with a 2-6 record (1-3 in MAC play). Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00p.m. eastern time at Huskie Stadium.
Central Michigan (2-6)
The Chippewas have taken a significant step backwards from last season. They averaged 32 points per game in 2021 but average just 25.3 this season. Losing a pair of offensive tackles to the NFL draft has been a massive blow. Starting RB Lew Nichols is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry after averaging 5.4 in 2021. It’s effected the passing game, making it difficult to find open receivers. They switched from QB Daniel Richardson to QB Jake Bauer last week. Bauer is a threat to run.
CMU does have a stingy run defense, allowing opposing teams just 3.3 yards per carry. Can’t say the same about their pass defense but they have been able to get to the QB. They have 24 sacks as a team, led by DL Thomas Incoom with 7.5. This is one of the best defensive lines in the MAC conference.
Northern Illinois (2-6)
Like CMU the Huskies have also regressed. After winning the MAC championship last season they’ve won just 2 games. They’ve won 1 of their 5 close games after taking 7 out of 10 the year before. They’ve been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play from the QB position. 3 Different signal callers have started for NIU.
The Huskies run the football and they run it well. Running on 60% of their plays for an average of 4.9 yards per carry. Starting RB Harrison Waylee has 727 yards (5.5 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, back-up Antario Brown has 575 yards (5.8 YPC) and 6 touchdowns.
The defense hasn’t been great, but they are in the top half of yards allowed per game in the MAC conference. They’ve been exceptionally strong against the run, allowing 120.9 rushing yards per game (2nd in MAC). They have played better the last 2 weeks, holding EMU to 10 points and a potent Ohio offense (That threw up 45 points yesterday) to just 24 in their own house.
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The Pick
CMU/NIU Under 57. Both teams prefer to run the football but they’re up against good run defenses. CMU has struggled to run all year after losing both starting tackles to the NFL draft, their starting RB averages just 3.5 yards per carry after averaging 5.4 last season. They now face the 2d best rushing defense in the MAC. NIU’s defense has also allowed just 34 points in their last 2 games, holding an explosive Ohio offense to just 24 in their own house. On the flip side NIU has been successful rushing, averaging 202.3 yards per game (2nd in MAC). They run on 60% of their plays but now face an elite run defense. CMU holds opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry and their defensive line ranks 2nd in the country in Line Yards. NIU struggles to move the ball through the air, ranking 3rd in the conference with just 195.5 passing yards per game. The ground and pound into tough run defenses is going to bleed the clock. The Under is 5-1 in CMU’s L6 overall, 5-1 L6 in conference games, and 5-1 L6 vs teams with a losing record. It’s also 4-0 when CMU fails to score 20+ the previous game and 7-2 for NIU in the same scenario.
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