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NFL
(12/25/23) 8:15PM EST.
Spread: BAL +6 / SF -6
ML: BAL +220 / SF -270
Over/Under 46.5.
Free Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards.
Unfortunately for Baltimore the Ravens RB room just continues to get decimated by injury. The electric rookie Keaton Mitchell just tore his ACL last week. He provided much needed explosiveness to the backfield, averaging 8.4 yards per carry with a 20+ yard rush in 6 straight games. Without him Lamar's going to be forced to do more with his legs, especially against this 49ers defense.
As good as the SF defense has been, they don't have great numbers against the run. They don't allow many rushing yards per game but that's misleading. Half the time they're blowing teams out and the opponents have to abandon the run. They have 21 fewer rush attempts against them than any other defense. On a per carry basis, they're allowing 4.3 yards, 20th in the NFL. That's also up to 5.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Part of that's due to the Arik Armstead injury. He's the 49ers best run defender and already ruled out for this game. Fellow DT starter Javon Hargrave is also questionable with a Hamstring injury so that interior DL is banged up.
Baltimore has the #1 rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 163.8 rushing YPG, thanks in large part to Lamar. With Miami right on Baltimore's tail for the #1 overall seed in the AFC, this is a very important game for the Ravens. They'll treat this like a playoff game and run Lamar as needed. The ground game is also the best way to neutralize that daunting SF pass rush. Since acquiring Chase Young, they are absolutely terrorizing QB's. That pass rush will also lead to some off schedule run plays. They'll certainly get to Lamar, but they'll also lose rush lane integrity at times and present Lamar with opportunities to tuck it and run. He's gone over this rushing total in 2 straight weeks and has seen at least 11 carries in 3 straight.
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NFL & NBA CHRISTMAS DAY, BOWL GAMES AND NBA/CBB ALL WEEK!
