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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Major League Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction (5/10/24)


7:05PM EST.

ML: ARI +115 / BAL -130

Total: O/U 8.

7:05PM EST: ARI/BAL Over 8.

Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.76 road ERA this season. He posted a 5.1 ERA in 5 April starts and opened up May by surrendering 5 Runs on 10 hits across 6IP at Home to the Padres. Baltimore's 3rd in OPS and 2nd in Runs per game this season. They struggled against Trevor Williams, who's dominating every lineup, but have scored 7 and 11 runs in 2 of their last 3. Arizona's bullpen has a 4.67 ERA (23rd) and it's heavily taxed. Ginkel (2.93 ERA in 16 G), and Thompson (1.2 ERA in 15 G) have thrown back-to-back days. Closer Paul Sewald just came back from injury and has thrown 2 of the last 3. Joe Mantiply (3.52 ERA in 15 G) has thrown 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5. Pfaadt's pitched 6 full innings in just 6 of his last 7 road starts. Bad bullpen arms will need to record outs.

Orioles Left-Handed starter Cole Irvin has thrown well of late but he's had solid matchups. He allowed 11 combined earned runs in his first 3 starts (14.2 IP) before finding his groove. The following 3 starts came @ Royals, vs A's, and @ Reds. Kansas City's offense is respectable but they rank 26th with a .630 OPS against Lefties. The A's just started swinging it well of late but they're still 18th in OPS and 29th in runs per game on the road. The Reds are 26th in OPS and 25th vs Lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1st in baseball with an .866 OPS against Lefties. The Orioles (.832) and Cubs (.814) are the only other teams above .800. Going back they've scored 5, 4, 6, and 11 runs. This is by far Irvin's toughest match-up since he got blasted in Boston. He's 30 years old, has a career 4.3 ERA with a season best 3.98 ERA in 2022. The Baltimore bullpen has also really struggled of late and is just 12 for 20 in save opportunities this season. 


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