(3/30/23) 10:10 PM Eastern.
ML: D-Backs +150/ Dodgers -175
RL: ARI +1.5 (-140) / LAD -1.5 (+125)
Total: Over / Under 7.5.
This line is just off. Zac Gallen cemented himself as one of the league’s best big-league pitchers last year. His 2.54 era across 31 starts ranked 4th in the National League in 2022. He surrendered just 1 run in 14 innings of work (2 starts) against the Dodgers last year. An LA Dodgers line-up that was much better than their current line-up. He had just 4 losses in 2022 and again, that’s through 31 starts. He consistently gives his guys a chance to win. A little more support from the bats and a stronger bullpen and he’s a 20-win pitcher. The bullpen won’t be blowing as many games this year, they sured that up in Free Agency.
The D-Backs are a much better than they’re getting credit for. They dealt with a slew of injuries last year and still managed to win 74 games. Corbin Caroll is the pre-season betting favorite for Rookie of the Year and is dominating through spring with an OPS of 1.138. He was also the fastest recorded baserunner in 2022 and will be stealing plenty of bags this season. 7 of their 9 starters are hitting over .260 through spring, many even higher. The D-Backs went 19-12 (1-1 vs LAD) in Gallen’s 31 starts last year and this team is better than a season ago. He could be up against an All-Star team, getting him at +150 would still be ridiculous. Take the high value play.
The Pick: (ATL) Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Bases +100.
Ozzie Albies bat is red hot at the moment. He finished spring training with a .308 average and .596 slugging. In his final 5 games of spring, .462 average while slugging .923. Half of his hits went for extra bases during that span. He also gets a friendly match-up with Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been one of the league’s worst pitchers in recent years and his diminishing fastball is the reason why. Albies has had a ton of success against him too. In 28 at bats, .429 AVG, .448 OBP, .929 SLG. 7 of his 12 Hits went for extra bases. Since Corbin’s fall from grace in 2021 and 2022, Albies has 7 hits in his last 11 at bats, 4 were XB hits. The Nationals bullpen is also terrible if Corbin gets chased out of this game early. He’s got a chance to see 5 at bats in this game.
The Pick: (TEX) Jacob Degrom Under 7.5 strikeouts +120.
This is one of baseballs best strikeout artists but there’s great value here. First, Degrom’s on a pitch count. He’s thrown a max of 34 pitches in spring and their manager came out and announced they want to limit him to 65 pitches. This is their big money Free Agent and Degrom has a history of getting hurt and missing time. He hasn’t pitched more than 92 innings in a season since 2019. Game 1 of 162 simply isn’t worth it. This marks Degrom’s 10 Major League season. He’s only gone over 7.5 strikeouts in 2 of his previous 9 first starts of the season. One of 2 that went over landed on 8. The Phillies have a very good line-up too. Guys that will make Degrom work for his strikeouts. They ranked in the top half of the MLB last year in strikeouts per game and that line-up has only improved.