(1/11/23) 7:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: Alabama PK / Arkansas PK
Moneyline: Alabama -110 / Arkansas -110
Total: Over / Under 153.5
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The Pick: Alabama vs Arkansas Over 153.5
Big time SEC match-up featuring #4 Alabama at #15 Arkansas. Auburn is fresh off a 78-52 beatdown of Kentucky at home while Arkansas got beat in Auburn 59-72 their last time out. The Razorbacks are a perfect 8-0 at home this season and 5-0 at home their last 5 against Alabama. The Crimson tide are 3-0 on the road this season and have won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Arkansas. This is a stripe out game for the Hogs.
This is going to be a high-flying physical affair. Expect plenty of possessions and plenty of trips to the free throw stripe. The Crimson Tide average 82.9 points per game on 78.4 possessions per game (2nd most) and Arkansas isn’t too far behind averaging 76.2 points per game and 73.3 possessions per game.
There will be plenty of quick score opportunities as neither team is very good at protecting the ball. Alabama ranks 348th with 15.5 turnovers per game while Arkansas ranks 193rd with 12.5. The Hogs also rank 23rd in turnovers forced per game. That sloppy play translates to plenty of fouls. ALA averages 18.7 fouls per game (284th) and ARK is averaging 17.5 (224th). The fouls also come from aggressive rim protection, ALA averages 5.7 blocks per game (12th) and ARK 4.8 (35th).
Both teams like to attack the basket as neither squad excels at shooting the 3. Bama shoots a decent 34.9% from behind the arc (136th) but Arkansas shoots an abysmal 28.7% (345th). 60% of Arkansas’s points come from 2pt field goals. Aggressive drives and Aggressive defense. There’s going to be plenty of whistles blown at the rim tonight and each team shoots higher than 70% at the FT line.
This is a huge rivalry game that has seen the final score decided by 4 points or less in 5 of their last 9 meetings. Big reason why the Razorbacks chose those game as a stripe out game. The Crimson Tide have lost 5 straight at Arkansas, their last win on the Hogs court coming way back in 2012. Both teams are ranked and bringing plenty of intensity to the floor tonight. Their aggressive fast up-tempo and sloppy style of play will lead to plenty of transition baskets and trips to the free throw stripe pushing this Over the total.
The Over is also 13-4 in ALA L17 road games and 20-7 following a SU win while it’s 20-9 for ARK following a SU loss.