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Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon Under 800.5 Rushing Yards.
Mixon’s entering year 7 of his NFL career with over 1,548 touches to date. Plus the 365 he had at Oklahoma. A lot of mileage and he’s the dreaded RB age of 27, when backs tend to fall off a cliff. He’s oft injured having played a full season in just 1 of his 6 years in the NFL. He’s also coming off his worst year since his Rookie campaign after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry last season.
Despite signing Orlando Brown, this Bengals OL is going to struggle to run the ball. Their 3 interior linemen remain the same from last year and Jonah Williams has flipped from LT to RT. He was plain terrible last year. Mixon’s also split touches more and more as his career’s progressed. CIN drafted RB Chase Brown out of Cinci and Chris Evans played well in his limited roll last year behind then back-up Samaje Perine. The Bengals ranked 28th in rushing yards per game last year and haven’t done enough to change that.
Pittsburgh Steelers: George Pickens Over 4.5 Touchdowns.
This is a Steelers offense that should see improvement across the board. They drafted Broderick Jones with the 14th pick of the draft to be their Left Tackle and signed one of the best guards in football; Issac Seumalo from PHI. Center Mason Cole and RG James Daniels enter year two with PIT after a strong 2022. Chukwama Okorafor was also solid at RT last season. This will be one of the better PIT offensive lines in some time.
Good RB’s with Najee and Jaylen Warren, Good WR room with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Allen Robinson, great TE room with Pat Freiermuth and Rookie TE Darnell Washington out of Georgia. QB Kenny Pickett enters year 2 in the NFL in the same system. He and the numerous other returning starters will all feel more comfortable in Matt Canada’s system. This offense is going to have more than 12 passing touchdowns in 2023.
Despite just 12 passing touchdowns, Pickens reeled in 4 of them. All of which came from Kenny Pickett. Mitchell Trubisky was the starting QB for PIT last year and played in 7 games. If you haven’t seen, Pickens has some of the best hands in the NFL. Look up “George Pickens Highlights” and you’ll see more than a few examples. He excels at high pointing the ball and has strong hands through contact.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson Under 5.5 rushing touchdowns.
Lamar’s only gone over 5.5 touchdowns in 2 of his 5 NFL seasons. He had 3 rushing touchdowns last year and 2 the year prior. He’s also played just 12 regular season games in each of the past two seasons as injuries start to pile up. Baltimore moved on from OC Greg Roman and replaced him with Todd Monken. An entirely new offense is being put in place and Monken’s not known for designed QB Runs.
The Ravens also have a great stable of backs. There’s no need to have Lamar take the pounding on the goal line. JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are back this season. Justice Hill enters year 4 with BAL and they also signed Melvin Gordon. These backs behind a very, very good offensive line. After a freshly inked $260 Million deal, the Raven’s cant afford to lose Lamar to injury. It’s part of the reason Monken was brought in as OC.
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb over 1,200.5 Rushing Yards.
Another offense set to improve in 2023. Deshaun Watson gets his first full year under center for CLE after playing in just 6 games last year. There’s + receiving talent for Watson to throw to and CLE has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Everyone but the center has started on this offensive line since 2020. Center Ethan Pocic earned the starting gig last year and finished 5th in pass block win rate and 4th in run block win rate among centers. This is the same offensive line that led the way for Nick Chubb’s 1,525 rushing yards last season.
With Kareem Hunt gone the Browns lack a qualified backup. The 3 backs behind Chubb have a combined 48 carries in their career. Hunt averaged nearly 12 touches per game during his time in Cleveland. Chubb’s going to have to shoulder some of that workload. Chubb’s gone over this yardage total in 3 of his last 4 seasons and barring injury it would have been 4 straight. As long as he stays healthy he should reach this with ease. He can even afford to miss a couple games and still hit this. He missed 3 in 2021 and finished with 1,259 rushing yards.