MLB (4/26/24)

1 Pick.
 

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7:20PM EST: Guardians ML +220 (4 Units).

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Logan Allen starts for Cleveland. He has a 5.06 ERA this season but an xERA of 4.25. He's been burned by the long ball and things won't get any easier against this Braves lineup today but there's 10MPH winds blowing in to provide a little help. He has a 2.31 ERA in 2 road starts and posted a 3.64 Road ERA across 13 starts in 2023. The Braves don't have any career at bats against Allen which helps him the first time through the order. The Braves offense hasn't exactly been clicking recently either, batting .256 with a .732 OPS averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 5 games. They won their most recent game against Miami 3-2 on a walk off in the 10th. They're solid numbers but they have an .823 OPS on the season. Ozzie Albies was just reinstated from the IL and was productive offensively, but he hasn't taken a live at bat in 11 days. Allen's capable of turning in a decent start and handing things off to the 2nd best bullpen in baseball. He allowed 2ER or less in 15 of his 24 starts as a rookie last year and allowed 3 Runs or less in 3 of 5 starts this year.

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Chris Sale starts for Atlanta and he hasn't put together an Elite season since 2018. He has a 4.38 ERA through 4 starts this year and a 4.3 ERA in 20 starts last year. Sale allowed 2 Runs over 5.1IP in each of his first 2 starts. He's pitched 7 innings in each of his last 2 allowing 5 and 3 runs to the Marlins and Rangers. The Marlins offense ranks 29th in OPS this year and the Rangers bats have been below average since the 2nd week of April. MIA and TEX also rank 30th and 25th in OPS against Left-Handed Pitching. The Guardians rank 3rd with an .826 OPS vs LHP and rank 5th with a .773 OPS over the last week. Cleveland's scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games and 3 of their last 4 series have come against the Red Sox and Yankees, the top 2 teams in ERA this season. Jose Ramirez caught fire at the end of their most recent series and has a career .296 BA in 27 at bats against Sale.

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The Guardians are 18-7 and lead the league in run differential for a reason. Allen's capable of keeping a not so hot Braves lineup in check before passing things off to their bullpen. Cleveland's offense is good enough to hit anyone and especially this current version of Chris Sale. At +220 there's tremendous Value to be had. Public is hammering Atlanta and driving this line further in our favor. Make sure you shop around for odds as this one's all over the place book to book.

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MLB (4/19/24)

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1 Pick

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7:40PM EST: Royals ML +115 (3 Units) ✅

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BAL Starter Dean Kremer has been hit hard and we cashed in on that in his most recent start against Milwaukee. He allowed 8 runs (6ER) on 10 hits and a walk over 4IP. He has a 6.4 xERA, .302 xBA, and .615 xSLG. His first start of the season came at home against these Royals, allowing 3 ER over 5.1 IP. KC has been great at home, averaging the 3rd most runs per game at 6.1 batting .273 with an .805 OPS.

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KC starter Alec Marsh has a 4.32 ERA, 3.9 xERA, .234 opponent BA, and 1.08 WHIP. He opened the season with a 7-inning gem at Baltimore, surrendering just 1 run on 2 hits. The Orioles offense has done most of its damage via the longball this year. Kauffman stadium is not Homerun friendly and ranks 24th in HR park Factor. It's one of the larger ballparks and as a result is hitter friendly in every aspect outside the Homer. It's also low 50° temps with light winds blowing in today. Marsh has a stellar 1.62 BB/9 and has issued just 1 walk in each of his first 3 starts too. He doesn't hurt himself and that'll help if Baltimore leaves the park.

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The Royals have played very good baseball to start the season and are 12-7 compared to the Orioles 12-6. KC is also 8-2 so far at Home. Bullish on this Royals team. Fully expect them to be relevant this season and in playoff talks towards the end of the year. Great young talent on this roster that's been producing since the 2nd half of last season.

 

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MLB (4/18/24)

1 Pick.
 

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9:45PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +135 (3 Units). ❌

 

Arizona Starter Ryne Nelson has a career 4.91 ERA. He made 29 of his 35 career MLB appearances in 2023. He's two different pitchers depending on where he's pitching. When pitching at Home at Chase Field, he doesn't belong in the MLB, posting a 7.02 ERA in 17 games (16 starts). He did just pitch 6 innings of 1 run ball at Home his last time out. However, on the road he has a career 3.32 ERA in 18 games (17 starts). That isn't just good, it's elite. A 3.32 ERA would have ranked 10th among all qualifying pitchers in 2023. He has a 3.44 ERA in 3 career starts vs SF and a 1.98 ERA in 2 career starts @ Oracle Park. His lone road start this season came against Atlanta, the best offense in baseball. He surrendered 3 runs over 5IP on 5 hits without issuing a walk. He got stung by a couple long balls. The Giants rank 20th in At Bats per Homerun and there's below average temps and wind at Oracle Park. It's also the 2nd least HR Friendly park in MLB.

 

SF starter Logan Webb has done a good job limiting the damage this season. He's given up 28 hits and 6 free passes over 23.2 innings (1.39 WHIP) but boasts a respectable 3.8 ERA. His xERA is 5.2 which is a significant gap. He's a ground ball pitcher that has the sinker to get him out of jams though. Regardless he's allowing a few too many hits and baserunners. He's allowing an opponent BA of .298 (.328 xBA) which is a career worst. He has a combined opponent BA a hair above .240 over the last 3 seasons. His numbers are reminiscent to his first two seasons in the league when he had an ERA above 5. Arizona's offense likes to steal bases. They had the 2nd most steals in baseball last year and rank 10th on this young season. Runners have stolen 23 bags with an 85% SB success rate against Webb dating back to last year, two of the worst marks in baseball. Arizona was a perfect 6-6 against him last season too. The Diamondbacks will be aggressive in this department to help keep them out of double play situations. Having to police that negatively affects the pitcher as well.

 

Arizona holds the edge in the bullpen department. They have a 4.08 bullpen ERA compared to SF's 5.05. More important is who's fresh and available. Arizona's high leverage arms got the night off yesterday in a loss to Chicago while the Giants used theirs yesterday and were the entire series against Miami. Their Closer Camilo Doval has thrown 40 pitches over the last 3 days, which isn't ideal this early in the year. He's also made just 5 appearances, so he's not exactly stretched out great.

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MLB (4/12/24).

3 Picks.

 

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6:40PM EST: MIN/DET Under 7 ❌

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MIN SP Pablo Lopez is one of the better pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA after his first 2 starts with a .217 opponent BA and .87 WHIP. He's made 2 career starts against the Tigers and both of them in Detroit. They came last season, and he allowed a combined 3 ER in 13 IP. He has a .165 xBA and .199 xwOBA in 65 career plate appearances against this current Tigers team. The Tigers rank 26th in OPS so far this season and have scored a combined 15 runs while hitting .229 with a .642 OPS over their last 5 games.

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Tigers SP Tarik Skubal has the stuff to push for a Cy Young if he can remain healthy. He had a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022 and a 2.8 in 15 starts last year. He has a 2.92 ERA after 2 starts this year but an xERA of 1.7 and opponent BA of .159. He was stung by a couple long balls in his most recent start. He hasn't pitched against MIN since 2022 but he's pitched 12 consecutive shutout innings against them in his last two. He also has a career 3.13 ERA when pitching at Comerica Park. The Twins have the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the Bigs averaging just 2.9 runs per game.

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Both of these bullpens got reloaded from Thursday's game being postponed too. The Twins bullpen ranks 2nd with a 1.35 ERA and the Tigers 3rd with a 1.47 ERA.

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7:07PM EST: Rockies ML +210 (3 Units) ✅

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Colorado's early season struggles stem from absolutely terrible pitching. Offensively they're 15th in OPS while Toronto's down at 23rd. Ryan Feltner is starting for Colorado, and he's pitched well to start the season. He has a 3.27 ERA (2.66 xERA), .179 opponent BA, and 1.0 WHIP. He dominated the Rays in his last start, allowing just 1 Run on 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 over 6 innings. Being in the NL he's never pitched against the Blue Jays before. The Blue Jays roster has just 11 total Plate appearances against Feltner and have a .111 Batting Average. Unfamiliarity will always benefit the pitcher.

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Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto and that's usually bad news for opposing teams, but he's been awful and a near 2MPH Velo Drop is the reason why. He got solid results in his season debut against TB recording just 13 outs but was incredibly lucky as the Rays went 1-5 on HH balls. He got blasted for 6 runs over 1.1 IP against the Yankees his last time out. He has a 17.68 xERA (3rd worst), 18.5% Brls/PA (3rd worst), 52.9 Hard-Hit %, .347 xBA (17th worst), .787 xSLG (3rd worst), and .554 xwOBA (3rd worst). Having pitched for SF a couple season's the Rockies roster has 75 career plate appearances against Gausman too and have a solid .265 BA. Gausman's far from elite and even a Triple A lineup would hit him around if he continues to pitch this way. He's averaged nearly 190 innings pitched in each of the last 3 seasons, is in his 12th season, and 33 years old. It's possible that's all catching up to him and we'll monitor this moving forward. Plenty of elite pitchers have shown the ability to adjust to Velo drops later in their career but it's usually not pretty as first.

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10:10PM EST: Padres ML +170 (3 Units) ✅ 

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Michael King starts for the Padres. He wasn't great in his first two starts but a minor mechanical adjustment returned him to form in start number 3. He threw 7 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and walking 1 at San Francisco. He had a 2.75 ERA last year and a 2.29 in 2022. When he's on he's one of the best. The Dodgers lineup has also been human lately, hitting .240 with a .691 OPS over the last week (5 Games). King's more than capable of handling this Dodgers lineup even on their best day. The top 4 SD bullpen arms have all allowed just 1 run with at least 6 innings pitched this season. They're also fresh from the day off yesterday.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers. He got blasted by these Padres for 5 runs recording just 3 outs in his MLB debut during the Korea series. He hasn't allowed a run over his last 2 starts and 10 innings pitched though. Bit more MLB tape on Yamamoto now and there's a level of familiarity having faced him before. Padres also rank 6th in OPS over the last week. They've scored 9 and 10 runs in their most recent 3-Game set as well.