(9/18/24) 2 Picks.

 

8:15PM EST: Falcons +5.5 (1 Unit), ATL/PHI Under 45.5 (1 Unit).

Atlanta had a rather ugly debut with Kirk Cousins at the helm in Week 1 but that came against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. The Steelers D was great last year despite being incredibly young in the secondary. They're poised to be even better this year and have been through their first 2 games. The Falcons simply weren't terrible last season. They were 7-8 before throwing in the towel for their last 2 games as HC Arthur Smith was clearly headed out the door. The Falcons were 8th in rushing yards per game in 2023 behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Despite a new coaching staff, it's virtually the same exact group and they even kept the OL Coach and Run Game coordinator. Atlanta just lacked consistent QB play.

 

Kirk Cousins looked like a guy who hadn't played football in quite some time week 1. The negatives were amplified against a very good defense. He doesn't need to be elite to cover the number here, just better. The Eagles had the 30th ranked scoring defense last year and opened the season surrendering 29 points to Green Bay. That terrible field played a part in that, more on that later. Regardless this defense is not Pittsburgh's. We like it to be an improved group but they're far too young in the secondary to make some huge leap. With two veteran CBs on the IR they're forced to play younger guys.

 

The Falcon’s defense was very good last year. Prior to their last 2 games that saw them allow 85 combined points, they allowed just 19.1 PPG, 5th best mark in the NFL. Again, that was a Falcons roster that quit at the end of the season. They brought in a successful defensive head coach and didn't lose any important pieces. They also have a healthy Grady Jarrett. He's one of the best interior defensive linemen of the last decade and played just 8 games last season. He had 1.5 sacks against the Steelers in Week 1. The Steelers scored 18 points against them but not a single touchdown. 9 of those 18 points came off Falcons turnovers too. By all accounts the defense played well.

 

The Eagles offense really struggled in the 2nd half of 2023 and are hurting coming into tonight. They've got 2 WR's on the IR already and AJ Brown was ruled out. He's been the most impactful weapon in Jalen Hurts career and Hurts's QBR is nearly 10 full points lower without him. Philly's 6th round rookie WR Johnny Wilson's also questionable with a hamstring injury. He hasn't practiced all week. If he doesn't play that leaves Philly with just 3 healthy WR's on the active roster. The Eagles will lean on its ground game and Saquon Barkley in this one which should help shorten this game.

 

That Brazil Game's taken with a grain of salt. That field was terrible and gave both offenses a huge advantage. Defenders have to react and make cuts on a dime and that's hard to do without solid ground underneath you. Green Bay's defense came out and played much better in Week 2 and we expect a similar outcome for Philly's.