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8:20PM EST: Ravens -3 (4 Units)

 

Baltimore has been dismantling teams of late. They're 5-1 in their last 6 games and should probably be 6-0. Going back; 34-20 vs CIN, 31-33 vs CLE, 37-3 vs SEA, 31-24 @ ARI, 38-6 vs DET, & 24-16 @ TEN. The Cardinals game became a 1-score game with 26 seconds left and the Titans game 38 seconds left. The Browns game was just peak AFC North division rivalry game.

 

BAL took a 31-17 lead over CLE with 11:34 to go. Watson led the Browns down the field and scored a TD a couple minutes later. The following Ravens drive Lamar had a pass tipped at the line of scrimmage that dropped right into Grew Newsome's lap and returned for a TD. The XP was no good but BAL's next drive stalled on their 41-yard line. CLE got the ball back with 5 minutes left and ended the game with a game winning field goal. That's a very good Browns defense and one of the rare Deshaun Watson games this year.

 

Simply put, Baltimore is playing very good football. Their defense has been elite and stymied multiple good offenses. They are the 2nd ranked scoring defense allowing just 16.1 points per game and they match-up well against LA. The strength of the Chargers offense is their passing attack led by Justin Herbert. The strength of the Baltimore defense is its pass defense. Only the Cowboys and Browns allow fewer passing yards per game than the Ravens 169.7.

 

The loss of Mike Williams for the year has really stung them. First round Rookie WR Quenton Johnson hasn't taken the leap yet and there aren't many receivers in the NFL like Williams. It hurts against aggressive defenses. The "50/50" ball with him is more of a 70/30. If he's getting 1 on 1 coverage Herbert can just throw it up and watch him make plays. It's extremely valuable when you have Keenan Allen getting most of the attention elsewhere.

 

It also doesn't matter what type of weapons you have to throw the ball to if you don’t get time to do it. The Ravens have recorded 4+ sacks in each of their last 3 games. They rank 1st averaging 4 sacks per game and have the 4th highest sack percentage in the NFL at 9.87%. That's up to 12.15% in their last 3 Games. The Browns own the #1 mark in the NFL at 11.11%. The addition of Kyle Van Noy has really helped. He has 6 sacks and has only been up to speed for their last 6 games. The one good thing about defense is that it travels.

 

Offensively the Ravens should continue to have success despite no Mark Andrews. For starters Lamar is plenty used to playing without him. They have a strong back-up in TE Isiah Likely and another one in TE Charlie Kolar. Andrews was hurt before Baltimore scored a point in last week’s game against the Bengals and they still scored 34 points. In positive injury development, WR Zay Flowers and stud OT Ronnie Stanley are expected to play. WR Odell Beckham is listed as a Game-Time decision, but he was a limited participant in Thursday's practice and a Full Participant on Friday's. He's on the right side of that.

 

The Chargers defense is one of the worst in football. They rank 29th in opponent yards per play and 24th in points per game. To make matters worse they also just lost star pass rusher Joey Bosa for the year. He had 6.5 sacks in 8 games this year and is one of the better edge rushers in the NFL. It's a big blow as their pass rush was really the only bright spot of this defense. Excluding the NY Jets game since they don't have an NFL offense, the Chargers have just 5 sacks in their last 4 games. Lamar's also one of the toughest QB's to bring down.