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3/10/24
7:00PM EST: Illinois vs Iowa Over 171.5 (4 Units)
Illinois is 70% and Iowa 66.7% towards the Over on the year. This is a very high total but these two combined for 180 in their first meeting. With Iowa at Home today there will be a ton of possessions. Iowa ranks 26th in Adj Tempo this season but they average the 5th most possessions per game when playing at Home. Illinois also likes to play fast, ranking 65th in Adj T.
Both teams are offensive juggernauts. Illinois ranks 4th and Iowa 9th in Adj Offensive efficiency. Illinois is 11th and Iowa 13th in points per game. Defensively it's an entirely different story. Illinois is 97th and Iowa 165th in Adj Defensive efficiency. Illinois ranks 203rd and Iowa 329th in points allowed per game. Illinois being on the road is important for this matchup. At Home Illinois has allowed just 68.1 points per game. That's 5.2 points below their season average. When playing on the road they've allowed 81.2 PPG. That ranks 327th. Big reason the Over is 9-1 in Illinois road games this year. Iowa just plain sucks on defense though. They've allowed over 76 points per game at Home. Illinois's offense is too potent, and they travel just fine. They're averaging 86.6 PPG on the road this season, 2nd most. Both teams are strong at the charity stripe. Illinois shoots 74.5% (76th) and Iowa 78.7% (11th). Going to be a big factor with the extra possessions in this game. The transition defenses are also bad. Illinoi's 160th and Iowa 304th in PPP defense. There's going to be some very quick scoring barrages throughout this game.
Neither team is dependent on the 3-Ball to score either. Illinois is 139th and Iowa 337th in 3-PT Rate. They're 118th and 146th in 3-PT% too. Despite that these offenses thrive and we could see stronger perimeter shooting today. Illinois ranks 241st in opponent 3-PT%, 86th in defensive Open 3 Rate, 189th in PPP vs Catch and Shoot 3's, and 287th in PPP vs Off the Dribble 3's. Iowa ranks 289th in opponent 3-PT %, 309th in defensive Open 3 Rate, 311th in PPP vs Catch and Shoot 3's, and 281st in PPP vs Off the Dribble 3's. There was a total of just 14 made 3's in their first meeting and they still combined for 180. This game could fly over with strong outside shooting and both teams are stroking it at the moment. Illinois is shooting 42.6% and Iowa 45.8% from deep over their last 3 games.
3/9/24
6:30PM EST: Duke/UNC Under 151.5 (3 Units)
Duke is 22nd in Adj D while North Carolina ranks 6th. Tempo will play a major factor here and we like Duke at Home to play it at their level. They're 242nd in Adj T while UNC is 43rd. The Tarheels desire to play fast and get out in transition is well documented. Duke has one of the best transition defenses in the Nation ranking 21st in PPP and 341st in frequency. UNC ranks 35th in transition frequency but they're just 110th in PPP. Duke should force North Carolina into the half court more often than they would like. Duke's defense has played at an incredibly high level since their loss @ UNC just over a Month Ago. Over their last 9 games they've allowed just 62.5 points per game.
The overall intensity of this meeting should lead to a more physical game. A UNC win means sole possession of the ACC title while a Duke win would split it between them. Duke lost the first meeting so there's that added motivation. This is one of the biggest rivalries in all of College Basketball and the final regular season game. The first meeting went over playing to UNC's pace in their house but each of last year’s meetings flew well under the total. Jon Scheyer took over as HC for the Blue Devils last year. They've been much slower and elite defensively under his tenure.
3/9/24
2:30PM EST: Creighton/Nova Under 137.5 (4 Units)
Wouldn't usually take an Under between two teams that rank 7th and 15th in 3-PT Rate but we will today because Creighton ranks 24th and Villanova 13th in Adj D. Nova ranks 17th in points allowed per game and have allowed just 62.4 PPG at Home.
Creighton does a phenomenal job running teams off the 3-PT line and forcing them into the midrange. They lead all Power 6 programs in opponent 3-PT Rate. They also force teams to take midrange shots on 25% of possessions, 3rd most. It's an area Villanova's offense struggles in, ranking 275th in PPP. Villanova's offense has struggled all year. They rank 68th in Adj O and 287th in FG%.
Villanova doesn't run teams off the 3-PT line like Creighton, but they defend it well. After a brutal start to the year defending the perimeter they're now one of the better teams. They've climbed to 45th in Open-3 Rate, 50th in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 55th in PPP defending 3's off the Dribble. They're holding teams below 33% from deep and under 32% at Home. Creighton ranks 44th in 3-PT% on the season but they've shot just 34.2% from 3 on the road.
This game will be played at a slower pace. Creighton ranks 230th and Villanova 348th in Tempo. With the Wildcats playing their final Home game we trust them to better dictate the flow of this game too. There should be plenty of long empty possessions in this game. Creighton is 256th and Villanova is 279th in offensive rebounding %. Creighton is 40th and Villanova is 30th in defensive rebounding %. They opt to get back and get set defensively. Big reason they're 329th and 250th in defensive transition frequency.
3/9/24
12:00PM EST: Alabama Team Total Over 94.5 (3 Units).
Ton of points but a number Alabama's covered in 4 of their last 5 Home games. The lone exception came against Tennessee the last time they took the Home floor. Not surprising considering Tennessee has the 3rd ranked defense in the Country. This is a great spot for Alabama. They've lost 3 of their last 4 Games. All 3 losses to top teams in the Conference. It's Senior Night and 5 of Alabama's top 6 scorers are Seniors. Bama has the top offense in the Country and plays at the 11th fastest Tempo. Arkansas's defense ranks 142nd and they play at the 34th fastest tempo. Arkansas's also 317th in opponent Free Throw rate and their transition defense is 89th in PPP. Perfect get right spot for an Alabama team that's struggling right before Tournament play. The Alabama defense ranks 107th in Adj D but Arkansas's offense is hit or miss especially on the road. That's why we aren't laying the points with Bama or taking the game total. Alabama’s offense should show out regardless.
3/5/24
7:00PM EST: ND/UNC Under 138.5 (3 Units).
These two teams couldn't be much different offensively but defensively they're both strong. UNC is 27th in Adj O and 6th in Adj D. Notre Dame is 263rd in Adj O and 25th in Adj D. The Notre Dame defense didn't really come together until the halfway point this season. It’s been very good as of late and the main reason they're 5-1 over their last 6 games despite having one of the worst offenses amongst Power 6 programs. These two are also much different in pace of play. UNC is 42nd in Adj T while Notre Dame's 336th.
Despite playing on the road, we like Notre Dame to dictate the flow of this game. They're 53rd nationally in defensive rebound % and they just refuse to open things up in transition. They're dead last in transition offensive frequency at just 4% of possessions. They've played a handful of strong offenses this season and each games gone under the posted and this current total. Games against Auburn, Marquette, Duke twice, and Clemson. Every single one of those games went Under and it's because Notre Dame turns it into a grind. Virginia just slowed down the Tarheels a couple weeks ago. Virginia's another slow-paced defensive team with a terrible offense that can't afford to get into a track meet with UNC. UNC won that game 54-44.
The Irish offense can be counted on to be terrible. They're 348th in points per game and average just 61.9 points per game on the road. North Carolina's also a large favorite here and for good reason. Even if UNC's offense gets it going it's likely entering blowout territory and that'll mean extended minutes for the backups.
3/4/24
9:00PM EST: Baylor -6.5 (4 Units).
Baylor's starting to hit its stride and their newer 1-3-1 matchup defense has a lot to do with it. Offensively they've been a juggernaut all year, but their defense had been a liability. They've been respectable of late, doing a solid job against Kansas their last time out. They also had big defensive performances against Houston and TCU the games prior.
Texas is stronger offensively, but their defense is weak. The Bears had no issues scoring at Home against Houston and Kansas, the 1st and 11th ranked defenses in the Nation. Texas is all the way down at 39 and have been cooked on the road by good offense all year. Houston scored 82 (13th Adj O), Kansas 86 (42nd), BYU 84 (9th), and Marquette 86 (19th). Texas lost 3 of those games by 21 points exactly and another by 12. Texas is 186th in opponent 3-PT %, 183rd in Defensive Open-3 Rate, 282nd in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 62nd in PPP defensive off the Dribble 3's.
Baylor's 5th in Adj O this season and are 3rd in 3-PT%. They also shoot 43.3% from behind the Arc at Home. They can score in a variety of different ways with 6 players averaging over 10 points per game. The Texas defense isn't going to be able to stop the Bears tonight and Baylor's more efficient defense should provide enough stops to help us cover the number.
