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MONSTER WEEKEND IN NCAAB!
FRIDAY
(5) UConn vs (10) Gonzaga ✅
SATURDAY
(1) Arizona vs (3) Purdue
(9) North Carolina vs (14) Kentucky
More To Be Determined...
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(12/16/23)
4:30PM EST: Arizona -1.5 (3 Units).
Both Purdue and Arizona rank in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a battle between two National Championship contenders. Purdue's Zach Edey is the reigning CBB player of the year and runaway favorite to win it again. He's 7'4 and 300 pounds and physically dominates most. The thing is, outside of Edey, Arizona is just better everywhere else. The Wildcats also have a couple physical bigs too.
Arizona has a strong pair of bigs of their own in Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas. They're both 260 with Krivas standing 2 inches taller at 7'2. Can't really stop Edey but you can slow him down and disrupt their offense like Northwestern did when they managed the big upset. Ballo is the Veteran starter of the two and plays a physical brand of basketball. He's actually ranked much higher on NBA draft boards compared to Edey. Zach's game doesn't translate too well at the next level. He's just physically imposing in College.
It's also important to keep Edey off the offensive glass and that's something Arizona is currently doing better than anyone. They're 1st in overall rebound rate, 1st in defensive rebound rate, and 7th in offensive rebound rate. Outside of Edey the Wildcats have a size and length advantage everywhere else on the floor.
Arizona's at 51.5% from the field and Purdue 49.1%. Arizona shoots 39.1% from deep and Purdue 40.1%. Going to have to hit shots to win and compete in this game for both sides. The Arizona defense can just do something Purdue's doesn't, and that's really pressure the ball. Being as long and athletic as they are they can prevent any team from playing their offensive sets. They can pick up the ball full-court and have the ability to really disrupt an offense. They just dismantled Wisconsin doing it. Their quality depth really helps and enables them to do so.
The Arizona offense will also put some pressure on Edey at the Rim. Ballo is much more athletic than Edey and the Cats do a good job getting to the basket anyway. Edey lacks elite level Quickness, which is why he's never too high on NBA draft boards. That gets him into foul trouble as he ends up reaching when trying to deter shots.
Arizona is also the more experienced team. A lot of Seniors with a lot of game time under their belt. This is technically a neutral site game, but it will be a majority Purdue turnout because of the location. Still better than going into Purdue's home court. The Wildcats also went into one of the most hostile environments in CBB when they visited Duke and came out with a win anyway.
Both teams are very good, but Arizona just has NBA level talent that Purdue does not. Saw it with UConn and Gonzaga last night. Two very good teams, but one program will be shipping multiple guys off to the NBA.
(12/15/23)
10:00PM EST: UConn/Gonzaga Under 154 (4 Units) ✅
This is technically a neutral site game, but this will be hosted in Gonzaga's Home State of Washington. They'll play in the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, which is just over 4 hours away from the Gonzaga Campus. UConn is on the opposite side of the Country and had to take a nearly 8 Hour flight to get there. The Bulldogs get a shot at redemption after taking a 28-Point Blowout Loss in the Elite 8 against these Huskies back in March. The Climate Pledge Arena seats more than 3x as many fans as Gonzaga's Home court. Anytime the reigning Champs, or a National Championship favorite, or a team that kicked your ass in the NCAA Tournament in the Elite 8 a year prior comes to visit, Fans and the stadium show out. UConn happens to be all 3 in one, expect a packed house.
The travel and timing of this game could very easily throw off this Huskies team early. It's difficult to bring your A Game on the road, even harder when it's all the way across the country. This is also a late start time. With the 3-Hour time difference this game starts much later than the Huskies are accustomed to. Most of their night games start by 7PM eastern and are over before the West Coast games even start. There's also the hostile house factor we were talking about. This is still a good but very new look Huskies team. They did go into Allen Fieldhouse and nearly pull off an upset against an Elite Kansas team, but it was their worst scoring output of the season.
Can trust UConn to play this game at their Tempo though. They are not a fast team by any metric this year or last. They currently rank 293rd in adjusted Tempo and were 204th as National Champs. The slowdown in pace makes sense when you lose 3 guys to the NBA and explosive ones at that. Donovan Clingan's presence really slows the game down on both sides of the floor. The 7'2 Center provides UConn with a great post-up and pick and roll presence offensively. On defense he's one of the best Rim Protectors in College Basketball today. One of NCAA's best scoring Bigs of the past few seasons, UNC's Armando Bacot, just had his worst shooting night of the season against UConn. With Drew Timme off to pursue an NBA career, Clingan will dominate down low.
Gonzaga on the other hand ranks 83rd in adjusted Tempo but the schedule's played into that. It's easy to run up and down the court against inferior opponents. They're 1-4 to the Under against High Major teams. They lost to Purdue 63-73 earlier this year, going under by 19 points. It's similar to what they'll see against UConn. There's nobody quite like Purdue big man Zach Edey, but Donovan Clingan provides a similar daunting defensive presence in the middle of the floor. Gonzaga ranks 195th in 3-PT% and 284th in 3-PT Rate. They aren't looking to shoot 3's, they want to get to the Rim. The Huskies rank 6th in opponent 2-PT FG% though. Their 3-PT defense has been a bit unlucky but positive regression is coming. Their defense ranks 51st in Open 3 Rate.
Gonzaga also struggled against UCLA, another strong interior defense (36th Opponent 2-PT FG%). It was during the Hawaii Invitational, but they won 69-65. They also shot 37.5% from deep that day. The UConn defense currently ranks 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency and were 7th last year. It's a point of emphasis for Dan Hurley's team and they do a great job of it. They're also battle tested, having played (15) Texas, (5) Kansas, and (9) North Carolina already.
They've also played most of their games without Freshman guard Stephon Castle. His offensive game hasn't translated just yet, but HC Dan Hurley couldn't wait to get him back for his defensive ability. He's a lengthy guard at 6'6 and a very important depth piece whose role will only expand as the season progresses. He came back against UNC and helped hold them to just 44.4% from the Field. He's also a great rebounder, averaging 5.8 rebounds per game on just 17.8 minutes.
Rebounding is another area that should help keep the scoring down. UConn ranks 7th in opponent offensive rebounds per game. They held Texas to 5, Kansas to 4, and North Carolina to 8. UNC is the Armando Bacot effect and Clingan dealt with some foul trouble. It was the only game this season Clingan's reached 4 fouls. He played just 20 minutes after playing 32 against Kansas. He's done a great job being available all year and Bacot's a much better offensive big than anyone Gonzaga has to throw at them. The strong defensive rebounding is part of the reason UConn tends to dictate the Tempo of games.
The Huskies do love to shoot the 3-Ball, but they haven't been as great as years past, ranking just 177th in 3-PT%. They still rank 55th in 3-PT Rate. Despite that they still rank 12th in FG% because they're very efficient inside. The Gonzaga defense ranks 18th in defensive efficiency. They're holding teams to just 29.1% from deep (42nd) and 42.8% inside the Arc (25th). Reigning CBB Player of the Year Zach Edey still scored 25 against Gonzaga but it was his least efficient performance of the year. He shot "just" 50% from the floor. He's at 63% this year and 25 points was the 2nd lowest he's scored in Purdue's 7 games against High Major teams.
All together both teams get most of their work done and defend well inside. UConn has a clear size and height advantage with Clingan and that will slow down Gonzaga at the rim like Edey did when they played Purdue. UConn also has very athletic guards which will help prevent dribble penetration. Hurley's offense will be in no hurry either. They really slowed it down when they went into Kansas, and we like them to do it again here. Helps suck the crowd out of the game and speeding things up will only help Gonzaga as they're the much stronger transition team. The crowd and travel are both working against the Huskies offense too.
(12/1/23)
9:00PM EST: Kansas -2 (3 Units) ✅
Heavyweight battle between the (4) Huskies and (5) Jayhawks. If this were later in the year, we may be feeling a bit differently, but Kansas has the edge here. As good UConn is and was last year, this team lost two of the best CBB players in the nation last year to the NBA. Jordan Hawkins currently averages 13.5 points per game for the Pelicans while Sanogo is lighting up the G-League. Sanogo doesn't project much for the NBA as he doesn't have the height for it but he was 2023's NCAA Tournament player of the Year.
They have the players to reload, evident by their #4 ranking but it's too early in the season. They've also barely been tested as is. They have a nice Win over Texas on a back-to-back day but outside of that it's been Indiana and a bunch of nobodies. This is the new look Huskies first real test and road game and it's a huge one.
The biggest match-up will be Bigs Donovan Clingan and Hunter Dickinson. Clingan averaged 13 minutes per game for Connecticut last year while Dickinson spent the last 3 seasons as one of the best in the country at Michigan. He's come over to Kansas to play for Bill Self and he's thriving. He's averaging 21.7 points per game on 67% shooting. He's also shooting 61.5% from deep... He won't sustain that but he's a very good outside shooter. He shot 42.1% from beyond the arc last year.
We have him holding a clear edge over Clingan. They're both 7'2 with the weight advantage going to Clingan but Dickinson's a much better and more polished basketball player as of today. He's going to teach the youngster some valuable lessons tonight. Clingan's going to find it much harder to score with Dickinson guarding him, as he's generally overpowering other teams. The biggest advantage comes on the offensive side of the floor. Dickinson is going to score buckets and on everyone. His game is much better than Clingan's and he's also much quicker.
Dickinson can also stretch the floor. With his 3-point shooting he can drag UConn's rim protector out of the paint. Doing so gives the other 3 Kansas veterans the ability to attack the basket. Kevin McCullar Jr makes his 90th collegiate start and 120th appearance, KJ Adams makes his 44th and 81st, and Dajuan Harris 85th and 114th. This is a very experienced and veteran starting group that Kansas has. They don't have incredible depth, but they do a very good job staying out of foul trouble.
Speaking of fouls, Clingan's also a candidate to get in trouble here. He's never had to deal with a player of Dickinson's caliber for an entire game and he's not going to be able to just sit down low. He's going to have to do a lot of firsts tonight. If that happens, the Huskies are in serious trouble. Dickinson will end up with 30 shots taken.
Kansas has already played a bit of a gauntlet too. Beating (7) Tennessee, losing to (4) Marquette on a back-to-back, and beating (17) Kentucky. This game being at Home is also huge for the Jayhawks. The new look Connecticut team hasn't had to deal with this type of environment yet. Kansas went 15-1 at Home last year and hasn't lost a non-conference game there since they played Kentucky in January 2022. Allen Fieldhouse is going to be rocking, especially after Dan Hurley came out and said the Big East is the best conference in Basketball. True or not, he handed Bill Self and all of Kansas fandom some bulletin board material.

(11/30/23)
(2 Picks)
9:00PM EST: Creighton -7.5 (2 Units) ✅
Huge bounce back spot here for one of the Country's top teams. They're coming off a big neutral court loss to Colorado State. They had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, and the Rams are also a bit better than people realize. Still lost outright as 9-point favorites though. Creighton is a very good basketball team and they're going to respond. They were an Elite 8 Team a season ago and returned all 3 of their leading scorers. They did lose a couple contributors to the portal but picked up some of their own. Steven Ashworth came over from Utah State and is an elite point guard. He's also a great 3-PT shooter knocking down 41.3% of attempts this year and 43.4% last year. All in all, this Creighton roster ranks 15th in D-1 experience.
Creighton also matches up incredibly well against Oklahoma State. Creighton ranks 11th Nationally in ball screen PPP while the Cowboys rank down in the 9th percentile in pick and roll PPP. They've also struggled against off-screen action which is how McDermott likes to free up his shooters. He's got plenty as Creighton ranks 24th in 3PT FG% at 38.7. Of their top 6 players in minutes per game, 4 of them shoot 40% or better from deep, another shoots 38.5%, and then there's Trey Alexander who's shooting 31%. He's just off to a slow start after shooting 41% from 3 last season. More on him later.
Oklahoma State loves to shoot the 3. It's what they want to do as an offense, but Creighton has one of the best 3-PT defenses in the Nation. They force you off the line but it's incredibly difficult to get all the way inside with 7'1 Kalkbrenner down there. It's why they lead the nation in opponent Mid-Range shot frequency at 52.3%
Oklahoma just isn't a great basketball team as is. They have losses to Abiline Christian, St. Bonaventure, and Notre Dame. Their wins have come against Houston Christian, New Orleans, and Sam Houston State. Those teams aren't anywhere close to the top of D-1 Basketball. Per Ken Pom rankings Sam Houston State ranks 156th, New Orleans 284th, and Houston Christian 359th. Creighton ranks 16th for reference.
9:00PM EST: Trey Alexander Over 21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast (3 Units) ✅
Speaking of uncharacteristic shooting, Trey had the worst night of any Blue Jay against Colorado State. He shot 1-16 from the Floor and 0-5 from 3. Alexander is a very good player and was pivotal to Creighton's success a season ago. Despite that poor performance just 6 games in, he's still shooting 43.2% from the floor and averaging 15.8 points per game. He's shooting just 31% from deep after shooting 41% last year. We like him to bounce back in a big way.
The 16 shots tell you everything you need to know about the type of player he is. Shooters shoot and they keep attacking expecting that the next basket to fall regardless of what happened before. McDermott is an Elite coach, and he will call on him early to get him going. This is also a homecoming for Alexander as he grew up just an hour away from the stadium. He's averaging 6.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game to go along with his 15.8 points per game.
This also plays into the pick and roll match-up. He and Kalkbrenner will run that set on numerous occasions which provides Alexander a chance to score points or get an assist should he dish it to the big fellow. He's also just going to play his balls off tonight. Out to avenge the last game but he'll be playing in front of family and friends. He practically never comes off the court either. He leads the BlueJays at 33.5 minutes per game and averages just 1.2 fouls per game this season. Last year he averaged 1.7 fouls and as a freshman 1.9.

(11/30/23)
6:30PM EST: St. Joseph's +12.5 (4 Units) ✅
All about how these two match-up. But first this Hawks team nearly beat Kentucky in Kentucky. Christ Essandoko had the chance to put them up by one when he went to the line for 2 FT attempts in a 76-77 game with 14 seconds remaining. He made the first and missed the second. The game would go to Overtime at 77-77, where they would end up losing 88-96.
They're able to compete with the best for a few reasons. Experience and continuity is a major factor. Head Coach Billy Lange is in his 5th year at the program. He got off to a slow start but that's not abnormal for mid major programs. You often lose most of the talent that was there and are forced to start from scratch. The Hawks lost all 4 of their leading scorers the year he took over. His roster started to round into shape last year and they had their best year under Lange. They went 16-17 and 8-10 in conference play but they were a younger team.
Now there's a whole lot of game time under their belts. Guard Cameron Brown is a true 5th year starter with 118 career appearances and 106 starts. Guard Erik Reynolds in year #3 with 69 appearances and 68 starts. Junior Forward Kacper Klaczek in his 3rd year with the program with 42 appearances for the Hawks. Rasher Fleming, Lynn Greer, and Christian Winborne are all in their 2nd years at Saint Joseph's with 37, 39, and 34 appearances for the Hawks. Those are 6 of their 8 players leading the Hawks in minutes per game.
The other 2 are impact first year guys and that extra influx of talent is another reason the Hawks are legit. Guard Xzayvier Brown is a 2023 commit and the 3rd highest rated prospect that Saint Joseph's ever recruited. He's averaging 11.3 points per game, 53.1% from the field and 42.9% from 3. Then there's 2022 commit Christ Essandoko. He was forced to sit out last year due to eligibility issues, but he was with the team. He's a monster of a man at 7'0 285. He was committed to Providence but decommitted when Ed Cooley decided to leave for Georgetown. Both guys had multiple offers from top division 1 basketball programs.
The final and most important reason is shooting. Saint Joseph's loves to shoot the 3 ball and their top scorers make it an elite rate. Erik Reynolds is shooting 41.5% from deep, Cameron Brown 38.1%, and Xzayvier Brown 42.9%. They rank 2nd in Division 1 averaging 32.5 3PT shots per game. The "live and die by the 3 saying" is true. The week prior to nearly upsetting Kentucky they lost to Texas A&M-Commerce 57-54 because they went 6/30 from deep. Against Kentucky they shot 15/37. Last week against Sacred Heat 11/33.
Nova has just struggled to defend the 3-point line this year. They did a decent job last time out against a quality shooting Team in Memphis but context matters. That was their 3rd straight game in as many days, and they just struggled across the board in the first half. They managed just 16 first half points before going on to score 47 in the 2nd. They went 1/12 from 3 in the first half but 6/13 in the 2nd. From deep North Carolina went 9/24 (37.5%) against Nova, Texas Tech 14/36 (38.9%), Maryland went 5/26 but they flat out stink, their 23.8% 3-pt shooting ranks 356th this year. They were upset by Pennsylvania because they allowed them to shoot 41.2% from 3. Even American shot 30% and Le Moyne 36%.
They've consistently played poor perimeter defense and Saint Joseph's is going to attack that all game long. And unlike other mid majors, Saint Joseph's has the size to compete. Center Christ Essandoko is bigger than anyone Villanova has. Rasheer Fleming is 6'9 230 and Kacper Klaczek is 6'8 230. Their regular rotation is bigger than the Wildcats. They actually out rebounded the other Wildcats 39-32 in that game. Kentucky also has an incredibly long lineup. They start 1 player that's 6'9, two that are 6'8, another who's 6'6, and their smallest is 6'4.
It's never easy to go into Villanova but Saint Joseph's has all the pieces to do it. Live and die by the 3-ball. Saint Joseph's is going to have to hit those perimeter shots if they want this game to remain competitive. It's also a great crowd silencer. Nothing more deafening to a home crowd than the opposing team knocking down 3 balls.