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3/9/24
2:30PM EST: Creighton/Nova Under 137.5 (4 Units)
Wouldn't usually take an Under between two teams that rank 7th and 15th in 3-PT Rate but we will today because Creighton ranks 24th and Villanova 13th in Adj D. Nova ranks 17th in points allowed per game and have allowed just 62.4 PPG at Home.
Creighton does a phenomenal job running teams off the 3-PT line and forcing them into the midrange. They lead all Power 6 programs in opponent 3-PT Rate. They also force teams to take midrange shots on 25% of possessions, 3rd most. It's an area Villanova's offense struggles in, ranking 275th in PPP. Villanova's offense has struggled all year. They rank 68th in Adj O and 287th in FG%.
Villanova doesn't run teams off the 3-PT line like Creighton, but they defend it well. After a brutal start to the year defending the perimeter they're now one of the better teams. They've climbed to 45th in Open-3 Rate, 50th in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 55th in PPP defending 3's off the Dribble. They're holding teams below 33% from deep and under 32% at Home. Creighton ranks 44th in 3-PT% on the season but they've shot just 34.2% from 3 on the road.
This game will be played at a slower pace. Creighton ranks 230th and Villanova 348th in Tempo. With the Wildcats playing their final Home game we trust them to better dictate the flow of this game too. There should be plenty of long empty possessions in this game. Creighton is 256th and Villanova is 279th in offensive rebounding %. Creighton is 40th and Villanova is 30th in defensive rebounding %. They opt to get back and get set defensively. Big reason they're 329th and 250th in defensive transition frequency.
3/5/24
7:00PM EST: ND/UNC Under 138.5 (3 Units).
These two teams couldn't be much different offensively but defensively they're both strong. UNC is 27th in Adj O and 6th in Adj D. Notre Dame is 263rd in Adj O and 25th in Adj D. The Notre Dame defense didn't really come together until the halfway point this season. It’s been very good as of late and the main reason they're 5-1 over their last 6 games despite having one of the worst offenses amongst Power 6 programs. These two are also much different in pace of play. UNC is 42nd in Adj T while Notre Dame's 336th.
Despite playing on the road, we like Notre Dame to dictate the flow of this game. They're 53rd nationally in defensive rebound % and they just refuse to open things up in transition. They're dead last in transition offensive frequency at just 4% of possessions. They've played a handful of strong offenses this season and each games gone under the posted and this current total. Games against Auburn, Marquette, Duke twice, and Clemson. Every single one of those games went Under and it's because Notre Dame turns it into a grind. Virginia just slowed down the Tarheels a couple weeks ago. Virginia's another slow-paced defensive team with a terrible offense that can't afford to get into a track meet with UNC. UNC won that game 54-44.
The Irish offense can be counted on to be terrible. They're 348th in points per game and average just 61.9 points per game on the road. North Carolina's also a large favorite here and for good reason. Even if UNC's offense gets it going it's likely entering blowout territory and that'll mean extended minutes for the backups.
3/4/24
9:00PM EST: Baylor -6.5 (4 Units).
Baylor's starting to hit its stride and their newer 1-3-1 matchup defense has a lot to do with it. Offensively they've been a juggernaut all year, but their defense had been a liability. They've been respectable of late, doing a solid job against Kansas their last time out. They also had big defensive performances against Houston and TCU the games prior.
Texas is stronger offensively, but their defense is weak. The Bears had no issues scoring at Home against Houston and Kansas, the 1st and 11th ranked defenses in the Nation. Texas is all the way down at 39 and have been cooked on the road by good offense all year. Houston scored 82 (13th Adj O), Kansas 86 (42nd), BYU 84 (9th), and Marquette 86 (19th). Texas lost 3 of those games by 21 points exactly and another by 12. Texas is 186th in opponent 3-PT %, 183rd in Defensive Open-3 Rate, 282nd in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 62nd in PPP defensive off the Dribble 3's.
Baylor's 5th in Adj O this season and are 3rd in 3-PT%. They also shoot 43.3% from behind the Arc at Home. They can score in a variety of different ways with 6 players averaging over 10 points per game. The Texas defense isn't going to be able to stop the Bears tonight and Baylor's more efficient defense should provide enough stops to help us cover the number.
