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9/24/23 - 6/24/24
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3/9/24
4:00PM EST: Kansas/Houston Under 139.5 (3 Units).
Houston has the #1 defense in the Country and Kansas isn't too far behind at #10. Houston's such a large favorite here because of Kansas's road struggles. The Jayhawks are just 3-6 on the road this year and their offense goes missing at times. It's the McCullar and Dickinson show for Kansas, but they struggle to find points outside those two. McCullar has been battling injuries and tweaked his knee last time out. There's talk of resting him through the Big 12 Tournament. He's questionable today but even if he does go, he won't get a full workload. Houston also ranks 4th in PPP defending the Post, an area where Dickinson does most of his work.
It's going to be an extremely hostile environment for the Kansas offense. Houston just joined the Big 12 this season and already clinched a share of the Big 12 regular season title. A win today and that Big 12 titles is theirs alone. Houston also ranks 349th in Tempo and should control the flow of this game. The Houston offense isn't exactly efficient. They're 240th in FG% and 304th in FT%. They'll struggle against an Elite Kansas defense. They make up for it by dominating the offensive glass. They're 4th in the Nation in offensive rebounding %. Kansas is 49th in defensive rebounding % and has one of the best rebounders in the Country with Dickinson. They should keep a lid on Houston's total put back opportunities.
3/9/24
12:00PM EST: St. John's -18.5 (3 Units), Joel Soriano Over 8.5 Rebounds -120 (3 Units).
The Red Storm are rolling hot, winning 4 straight and each of their last 3 in blowout fashion. Most have them on the outside looking in at an NCAA Tournament Bid but that can change. KenPom ranks them 28th Nationally and they're a few baskets away from having a very different season. Their run needs to continue into conference tournament play for a chance at a Bid, but Georgetown comes first.
Georgetown's 2-17 in Big East play with its only wins coming against Depaul, the worst team in the Big East and all Power 6 programs. Georgetown lost by 13 at Home to Providence their last time out. Going back on the road they lost 47-75 at Nova, got a 1-Point win over Depaul, and lost by 22 on the road to Creighton. They're 321st in Adj D and 102nd in Adj O.
Offensive rebounding, Turnovers, and Transition baskets should lead St. John's to cover the large spread. Georgetown's 195th averaging 11.4 turnovers per game while St. John's averages 12.9 opponent turnovers per game. Transition opportunities come from loose balls or missed shots. The Red Storm ranks 38th in Adj D and Georgetown ranks 324th in FG%. Georgetown will miss shots and turn it over plenty. They’re in the bottom 5 in CBB ranking 358th in PPP defending in transition. They also allow the 34th most transition possessions. Georgetown's just 282nd in defensive rebounding % while St. John's sits 7th in offensive rebounding %.
5th year Senior Joel Soriano leads the Red Storm in rebounding and is one of the best in the Country. He's been a starter for 3 years here and is playing in his last regular season Home Game for the Red Storm. We like him to show out today and when he's at his best he dominates the glass. St. John's as a whole need’s wins and even style points right now. They should keep the throttle down for an entire 40 minutes.
3/5/24
7:00PM EST: ND/UNC Under 138.5 (3 Units).
These two teams couldn't be much different offensively but defensively they're both strong. UNC is 27th in Adj O and 6th in Adj D. Notre Dame is 263rd in Adj O and 25th in Adj D. The Notre Dame defense didn't really come together until the halfway point this season. It’s been very good as of late and the main reason they're 5-1 over their last 6 games despite having one of the worst offenses amongst Power 6 programs. These two are also much different in pace of play. UNC is 42nd in Adj T while Notre Dame's 336th.
Despite playing on the road, we like Notre Dame to dictate the flow of this game. They're 53rd nationally in defensive rebound % and they just refuse to open things up in transition. They're dead last in transition offensive frequency at just 4% of possessions. They've played a handful of strong offenses this season and each games gone under the posted and this current total. Games against Auburn, Marquette, Duke twice, and Clemson. Every single one of those games went Under and it's because Notre Dame turns it into a grind. Virginia just slowed down the Tarheels a couple weeks ago. Virginia's another slow-paced defensive team with a terrible offense that can't afford to get into a track meet with UNC. UNC won that game 54-44.
The Irish offense can be counted on to be terrible. They're 348th in points per game and average just 61.9 points per game on the road. North Carolina's also a large favorite here and for good reason. Even if UNC's offense gets it going it's likely entering blowout territory and that'll mean extended minutes for the backups.
3/4/24
9:00PM EST: Baylor -6.5 (4 Units).
Baylor's starting to hit its stride and their newer 1-3-1 matchup defense has a lot to do with it. Offensively they've been a juggernaut all year, but their defense had been a liability. They've been respectable of late, doing a solid job against Kansas their last time out. They also had big defensive performances against Houston and TCU the games prior.
Texas is stronger offensively, but their defense is weak. The Bears had no issues scoring at Home against Houston and Kansas, the 1st and 11th ranked defenses in the Nation. Texas is all the way down at 39 and have been cooked on the road by good offense all year. Houston scored 82 (13th Adj O), Kansas 86 (42nd), BYU 84 (9th), and Marquette 86 (19th). Texas lost 3 of those games by 21 points exactly and another by 12. Texas is 186th in opponent 3-PT %, 183rd in Defensive Open-3 Rate, 282nd in PPP defending Catch & Shoot 3's, and 62nd in PPP defensive off the Dribble 3's.
Baylor's 5th in Adj O this season and are 3rd in 3-PT%. They also shoot 43.3% from behind the Arc at Home. They can score in a variety of different ways with 6 players averaging over 10 points per game. The Texas defense isn't going to be able to stop the Bears tonight and Baylor's more efficient defense should provide enough stops to help us cover the number.